Рынки прогнозов выборов

Рынки выборов — это основа Полимаркета: президентские выборы в США, партийные праймериз, конгрессные гонки и голосование в любой крупной демократии. Рынки выборов США 2024 года зафиксировали миллиарды объема.

Цены сочетают опросы, данные финансирования партий, экономические индикаторы и отчеты — все это сводится к одной цене. Это богатая торговая площадка как для аналитиков, так и для инвесторов, ориентированных на мнение.

70 активные рынки
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%ДаНет
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%ДаНет
$669.5M Объём 07/11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2099%ДаНет
July 2299%ДаНет
$3.1M Объём 31/08
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom20%ДаНет
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%ДаНет
$1.25B Объём 07/11
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%ДаНет
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro24%ДаНет
$115.2M Объём 04/10
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%ДаНет
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%ДаНет
$678.2M Объём 07/11
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen31%ДаНет
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%ДаНет
$115.7M Объём 30/04
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
46%
вероятность
Да Нет
$669.7K Объём 03/01
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot48%ДаНет
Benjamin Netanyahu38%ДаНет
$29M Объём 31/12
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone68%ДаНет
Ralph NormanRalph Norman21%ДаНет
$343.4K Объём 11/08
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3190%ДаНет
September 3083%ДаНет
$127.6K Объём
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)57%ДаНет
New People (NL)New People (NL)37%ДаНет
$15.9M Объём 20/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro71%ДаНет
Renan SantosRenan Santos18%ДаНет
$4.2M Объём 04/10
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%ДаНет
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton7%ДаНет
$40.4M Объём 03/11
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%ДаНет
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)2%ДаНет
$1.3M Объём 13/09
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke35%ДаНет
CDUCDU28%ДаНет
$3.1M Объём 20/09
Какая партия победит в Палате представителей в 2026 году?Какая партия победит в Палате представителей в 2026 году?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%ДаНет
Republican PartyRepublican Party15%ДаНет
$21.9K Объём 03/11
Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd PlaceKazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place
AuylAuyl51%ДаНет
Aq JolAq Jol23%ДаНет
$28.8K Объём 23/08
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface74%ДаНет
William CloustonWilliam Clouston10%ДаНет
$231.7K Объём 30/06
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage96%ДаНет
Count BinfaceCount Binface4%ДаНет
$2.7M Объём 30/06
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%ДаНет
Haley StevensHaley Stevens21%ДаНет
$1.2M Объём 04/08
Next Prime Minister of Romania?Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru NazareAlexandru Nazare35%ДаНет
Sorin GrindeanuSorin Grindeanu14%ДаНет
$3.2M Объём 31/12
Netanyahu покинет пост до...?Netanyahu покинет пост до...?
December 3144%ДаНет
July 311%ДаНет
$15.3K Объём 31/12
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema90%ДаНет
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile12%ДаНет
$102.4K Объём 14/08
Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionLos Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen BassKaren Bass63%ДаНет
Nithya RamanNithya Raman38%ДаНет
$13M Объём 31/12
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig97%ДаНет
Sian AstleySian Astley1%ДаНет
$344.6K Объём 30/07
MN-02 House Election WinnerMN-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party90%ДаНет
Republican PartyRepublican Party9%ДаНет
$8.9K Объём 04/11
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)98%ДаНет
New People (NL)New People (NL)1%ДаНет
$2.8M Объём 20/09
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second PlaceFlorida Governor Republican Primary Second Place
Jay CollinsJay Collins63%ДаНет
James FishbackJames Fishback23%ДаНет
$11.3K Объём 18/08
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds96%ДаНет
James FishbackJames Fishback3%ДаНет
$2.1M Объём 18/08
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface <10%35%ДаНет
Binface 10–20%31%ДаНет
$121.6K Объём 30/06
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?
Troy Jackson99%ДаНет
Graham Platner1%ДаНет
$815.7K Объём Осталось 5 дней
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
LPV39%ДаНет
AS37%ДаНет
$158.9K Объём 03/10
MI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Callie BarrCallie Barr70%ДаНет
Kyle BlomquistKyle Blomquist28%ДаНет
$12.9K Объём 04/08
WI-07 Republican Primary WinnerWI-07 Republican Primary Winner
Michael AlfonsoMichael Alfonso82%ДаНет
Kevin HermeningKevin Hermening9%ДаНет
$6.5K Объём 11/08
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 3013%
$100.9K Объём 30/09
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%ДаНет
R Senate, D House41%ДаНет
$8.8M Объём 03/11
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier MileiJavier Milei49%ДаНет
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof47%ДаНет
$364.6K Объём 24/10
FL-02 Republican Primary WinnerFL-02 Republican Primary Winner
Keith GrossKeith Gross53%ДаНет
Evan PowerEvan Power26%ДаНет
$6K Объём 18/08
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan SantosRenan Santos71%ДаНет
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado16%ДаНет
$469.8K Объём 04/10
WI-07 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Fred ClarkFred Clark85%ДаНет
Chris ArmstrongChris Armstrong3%ДаНет
$5.8K Объём 11/08
Georgia Senate Election WinnerGeorgia Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat87%ДаНет
RepublicanRepublican14%ДаНет
$76.5K Объём 03/11
Pernambuco Governor Election WinnerPernambuco Governor Election Winner
João Campos58%ДаНет
Raquel Lyra40%ДаНет
$16.9K Объём 04/10
NY-15 House Election WinnerNY-15 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%ДаНет
Republican Party3%ДаНет
$39.6K Объём 03/11
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
PHPH63%ДаНет
BNBN34%ДаНет
$9.7K Объём 01/08
WI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Mitchell BermanMitchell Berman88%ДаНет
Lorenzo SantosLorenzo Santos6%ДаНет
$5.3K Объём 11/08
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori BushCori Bush57%ДаНет
Wesley BellWesley Bell45%ДаНет
$86K Объём 04/08
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat68%ДаНет
RepublicanRepublican33%ДаНет
$1.1M Объём 03/11
2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner
UBJP77%ДаНет
BFP21%ДаНет
$29.8K Объём 14/09
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg14%ДаНет
Don LemonDon Lemon13%ДаНет
$895.3K Объём 31/12
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca Hong78%ДаНет
Mandela Barnes11%ДаНет
$211.5K Объём 11/08
Какая партия победит в Сенате в 2026 году?Какая партия победит в Сенате в 2026 году?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%ДаНет
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%ДаНет
$3.3M Объём 03/11
Next Mayor of Johannesburg?Next Mayor of Johannesburg?
Frank ChikaneFrank Chikane46%ДаНет
Helen ZilleHelen Zille44%ДаНет
$73.1K Объём 05/11
AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of VictoryAZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Feely 10–15%97%ДаНет
Feely 20–25%10%ДаНет
$22.4K Объём 04/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed94%ДаНет
Haley StevensHaley Stevens4%ДаНет
$6K Объём 04/08
Russia Parliamentary Election: TurnoutRussia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
53-56%29%ДаНет
50-53%19%ДаНет
$30.3K Объём 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson80%ДаНет
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson17%ДаНет
$3.3M Объём 13/09
New Zealand Election: TurnoutNew Zealand Election: Turnout
76-78%76-78%33%ДаНет
78-80%78-80%33%ДаНет
$10.6K Объём 07/11
Hawaii Governor Republican Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Republican Primary Winner
Gary CorderyGary Cordery81%ДаНет
Ken FujiyamaKen Fujiyama10%ДаНет
$3.8K Объём 08/08
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary WinnerKansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton94%ДаНет
Sandy Spidel NeumannSandy Spidel Neumann3%ДаНет
$162.6K Объём 04/08
FL-05 Republican Primary WinnerFL-05 Republican Primary Winner
John RutherfordJohn Rutherford93%ДаНет
Mark KayeMark Kaye3%ДаНет
$3.8K Объём 18/08
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 60–70%38%ДаНет
Farage 70–80%27%ДаНет
$84K Объём 30/06
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%Lula da Silva 5-10%37%ДаНет
Lula da Silva 10-15%Lula da Silva 10-15%31%ДаНет
$291.1K Объём 04/10
Hawaii Governor Democratic Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Josh GreenJosh Green97%ДаНет
David BourgoinDavid Bourgoin1%ДаНет
$3.8K Объём 08/08
AZ-01 House Election WinnerAZ-01 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party66%ДаНет
Republican PartyRepublican Party30%ДаНет
$4.2K Объём 04/11
HI-02 Democratic Primary WinnerHI-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Jill TokudaJill Tokuda96%ДаНет
Kirill BasinKirill Basin2%ДаНет
$3.4K Объём 08/08
Florida Democratic Senate Primary WinnerFlorida Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Alexander VindmanAlexander Vindman88%ДаНет
Angie NixonAngie Nixon12%ДаНет
$150.5K Объём 18/08
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
10%
вероятность
Да Нет
$33.9K Объём 31/07
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat69%ДаНет
RepublicanRepublican32%ДаНет
$128.8K Объём 03/11
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary WinnerMinnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike LindellMike Lindell50%ДаНет
Lisa DemuthLisa Demuth44%ДаНет
$454.2K Объём 11/08
MT-02 House Election WinnerMT-02 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%ДаНет
Democratic Party7%ДаНет
$36.2K Объём 03/11
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Часто задаваемые вопросы о рынках выборов

Почему рынки выборов точны?

Они требуют 'кожи в игре' — люди ставят деньги на свои взгляды, фильтруя низкокачественный шум. Чем больше объем, тем надежнее цена.

Какие рынки выборов сейчас активны?

США 2028, Израиль (по дате), местные выборы в Великобритании и ЕС, а также партийные праймериз. Следите за нашей страницей для обновлений.

Как оценить риск на рынках выборов?

Проверьте ликвидность (глубину книги заказов), историческую волатильность и дату принятия решения. Рынки с низкой ликвидностью подвержены неэффективному ценообразованию.

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