Mercati di previsione sulle elezioni

I mercati elettorali sono il cuore di Polymarket: presidenziali USA, primarie di partito, corse al Congresso e il voto di qualsiasi grande democrazia. I mercati sulle elezioni USA del 2024 hanno registrato miliardi di volume.

Il prezzo combina sondaggi, dati sui finanziamenti dei partiti, indicatori economici e cronaca, tutto sintetizzato in un unico valore. Un terreno di trading ricco sia per gli analisti sia per gli investitori guidati dalle opinioni.

66 mercati attivi
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance41%SìNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio25%SìNo
$670.9M Volume 07/11
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%SìNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%SìNo
$652.8M Volume 07/11
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom18%SìNo
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez15%SìNo
$1.23B Volume 07/11
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage90%SìNo
Count BinfaceCount Binface8%SìNo
$988.9K Volume 30/06
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen27%SìNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe26%SìNo
$110.6M Volume 30/04
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva62%SìNo
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro23%SìNo
$111.3M Volume 04/10
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)55%SìNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)39%SìNo
$14.9M Volume 20/09
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?
Troy Jackson50%SìNo
Shenna Bellows30%SìNo
$184.2K Volume 27/07
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot40%SìNo
Benjamin Netanyahu37%SìNo
$26.3M Volume 31/12
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election WinnerMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfDAfD80%SìNo
SPDSPD20%SìNo
$392.7K Volume 20/09
Which party will win the House in 2026?Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party84%SìNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party16%SìNo
$41.4K Volume 03/11
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
69%
probabilità
Sì No
$233.2K Volume 03/01
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat63%SìNo
RepublicanRepublican37%SìNo
$960.9K Volume 03/11
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro81%SìNo
Renan SantosRenan Santos10%SìNo
$4M Volume 04/10
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-Sayed78%SìNo
Haley Stevens23%SìNo
$847.9K Volume 04/08
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%SìNo
R Senate, D House41%SìNo
$8.4M Volume 03/11
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom18%SìNo
Kamala HarrisKamala Harris16%SìNo
$818.9K Volume 31/12
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$51.1K Volume 31/07
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface87%SìNo
Nigel FarageNigel Farage7%SìNo
$17.1K Volume 30/06
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham99%SìNo
Nigel FarageNigel Farage1%SìNo
$16.2M Volume 31/12
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)96%SìNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)2%SìNo
$1.7M Volume 20/09
Next President of New CaledoniaNext President of New Caledonia
Milakulo TukumuliMilakulo Tukumuli78%SìNo
Alcide PongaAlcide Ponga5%SìNo
$39.7K Volume 30/06
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig94%SìNo
Sian AstleySian Astley6%SìNo
$243.7K Volume 30/07
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election WinnerSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election Winner
AfDAfD98%SìNo
CDUCDU2%SìNo
$839.5K Volume 06/09
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron Donalds96%SìNo
James Fishback3%SìNo
$1.9M Volume 18/08
São Paulo Governor Election WinnerSão Paulo Governor Election Winner
Tarcísio de FreitasTarcísio de Freitas91%SìNo
Fernando HaddadFernando Haddad3%SìNo
$225.4K Volume 04/10
2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate
Marine Le Pen93%SìNo
Jordan Bardella6%SìNo
$215.3K Volume 23/04
Candidates in next Labour leadership election?Candidates in next Labour leadership election?
Andy Burnham99%SìNo
Angela Rayner3%SìNo
$140.4K Volume 31/12
SC-04 House Election WinnerSC-04 House Election Winner
Republican Party91%SìNo
Democratic Party10%SìNo
$27.2K Volume 03/11
Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner By-Election WinnerNorfolk Police and Crime Commissioner By-Election Winner
Colin SuttonColin Sutton72%SìNo
Beth JonesBeth Jones10%SìNo
$17.5K Volume 16/07
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 70–80%32%SìNo
Farage 80%+30%SìNo
$8.4K Volume 30/06
Israeli parliament dissolved by...?Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
July 3178%SìNo
July 158%SìNo
$1.9M Volume Termina oggi
2026 Johor General Election Winner2026 Johor General Election Winner
BNBN92%SìNo
PHPH7%SìNo
$36.8K Volume 3 giorni rimanenti
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva96%SìNo
Flavio BolsonaroFlavio Bolsonaro80%SìNo
$421K Volume 04/10
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom18%SìNo
Kamala HarrisKamala Harris16%SìNo
$819.2K Volume 31/12
Quebec General Election WinnerQuebec General Election Winner
PQPQ69%SìNo
CAQCAQ20%SìNo
$645.2K Volume 05/10
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
DemocraticDemocratic59%SìNo
RepublicanRepublican41%SìNo
$1.9M Volume 07/11
CA-24 House Election WinnerCA-24 House Election Winner
Democratic Party93%SìNo
Republican Party8%SìNo
$25.1K Volume 03/11
Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?
PNLPNL36%SìNo
Independent/Technocrat33%SìNo
$149.7K Volume 31/12
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Republican PartyRepublican Party54%SìNo
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party47%SìNo
$3.1M Volume 03/11
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)96%SìNo
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)3%SìNo
$1.2M Volume 13/09
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra94%SìNo
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton6%SìNo
$40.2M Volume 03/11
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
33%
probabilità
Sì No
$3.5M Volume 03/11
New Zealand Election: 2nd PlaceNew Zealand Election: 2nd Place
National PartyNational Party68%SìNo
Labour PartyLabour Party28%SìNo
$11.2K Volume 07/11
Paraná Governor Election WinnerParaná Governor Election Winner
Sergio Moro88%SìNo
Requião Filho11%SìNo
$13.9K Volume 05/10
VA-01 Democratic Primary WinnerVA-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Shannon Taylor98%SìNo
Salaam Bhatti2%SìNo
$11.9K Volume 04/08
2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Assembly By-Election Winner2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Assembly By-Election Winner
Tayte WillowsTayte Willows55%SìNo
Caley McDonaldCaley McDonald25%SìNo
$24.6K Volume 5 giorni rimanenti
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Éric Zemmour86%SìNo
Raphaël Glucksmann86%SìNo
$47.5K Volume 23/04
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$89.8K Volume 04/10
AZ-05 Republican Primary WinnerAZ-05 Republican Primary Winner
Mark Lamb71%SìNo
Daniel Keenan28%SìNo
$66.3K Volume 21/07
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
11%
probabilità
Sì No
$130.2K Volume 31/12
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen80%SìNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe41%SìNo
$43.6K Volume 30/04
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
11%
probabilità
Sì No
$3.9K Volume 31/07
Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd PlaceRussia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)66%SìNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)24%SìNo
$69.8K Volume 20/09
IN-07 House Election WinnerIN-07 House Election Winner
Democratic Party93%SìNo
Republican Party8%SìNo
$12.2K Volume 03/11
Next President of the National Rally in 2026?Next President of the National Rally in 2026?
Jordan BardellaJordan Bardella92%SìNo
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen5%SìNo
$3.8K Volume 25/10
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon97%SìNo
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%SìNo
$192.7K Volume 17/04
TX-26 House Election WinnerTX-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%SìNo
Democratic Party13%SìNo
$11.1K Volume 03/11
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori Bush64%SìNo
Wesley Bell36%SìNo
$47.9K Volume 04/08
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference VotesGreater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Bev CraigBev Craig87%SìNo
Sian AstleySian Astley13%SìNo
$48.8K Volume 30/07
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan SantosRenan Santos61%SìNo
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado9%SìNo
$426.7K Volume 04/10
MI-12 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Rashida Tlaib98%SìNo
Byron Nolen1%SìNo
$2.8K Volume 04/08
MI-04 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Sean McCann96%SìNo
Diop Harris3%SìNo
$2.8K Volume 04/08
MO-01 House Election WinnerMO-01 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%SìNo
Republican Party2%SìNo
$31.3K Volume 03/11
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4723%SìNo
4917%SìNo
$2.7M Volume 03/11
MI-01 Republican Primary WinnerMI-01 Republican Primary Winner
Jack Bergman95%SìNo
Matthew DenOtter3%SìNo
$2.6K Volume 04/08
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FAQ sui mercati elettorali

Perché i mercati elettorali sono accurati?

Richiedono di "metterci del proprio": le persone puntano denaro sulle proprie idee, filtrando il rumore di bassa qualità. Maggiore è il volume, più affidabile è il prezzo.

Quali mercati elettorali sono attivi ora?

USA 2028, Israele (per data), elezioni locali nel Regno Unito e nell'UE, oltre alle primarie di partito. Segui la nostra pagina per gli aggiornamenti.

Come valuto il rischio nei mercati elettorali?

Controlla la liquidità (profondità dell'order book), la volatilità storica e la data della decisione. I mercati con poca liquidità tendono a un prezzo inefficiente.

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