選挙予測市場

選挙市場はポリマーケットの中核です — 米国大統領、政党予備選、議会選挙、そして主要な民主主義の投票。2024年の米国選挙市場は数十億の取引量を記録しました。

価格は世論調査、政党の資金データ、経済指標、報告を組み合わせており、すべてが一つの価格に凝縮されています。アナリストや意見主導の投資家にとって豊かな取引の場です。

70 アクティブなマーケット
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2099%はいいいえ
July 2299%はいいいえ
$2.9M 取引高 31/08
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%はいいいえ
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%はいいいえ
$669.4M 取引高 07/11
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%はいいいえ
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro24%はいいいえ
$115.1M 取引高 04/10
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom20%はいいいえ
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%はいいいえ
$1.25B 取引高 07/11
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%はいいいえ
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%はいいいえ
$678.1M 取引高 07/11
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen30%はいいいえ
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%はいいいえ
$115.7M 取引高 30/04
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot48%はいいいえ
Benjamin Netanyahu38%はいいいえ
$29M 取引高 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%はいいいえ
September 3083%はいいいえ
$122.8K 取引高
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone73%はいいいえ
Ralph NormanRalph Norman20%はいいいえ
$333.9K 取引高 11/08
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)57%はいいいえ
New People (NL)New People (NL)37%はいいいえ
$15.9M 取引高 20/09
2026年に下院を制する政党は?2026年に下院を制する政党は?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%はいいいえ
Republican PartyRepublican Party15%はいいいえ
$26.4K 取引高 03/11
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke35%はいいいえ
CDUCDU28%はいいいえ
$3.1M 取引高 20/09
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds96%はいいいえ
James FishbackJames Fishback3%はいいいえ
$2.1M 取引高 18/08
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro71%はいいいえ
Renan SantosRenan Santos19%はいいいえ
$4.2M 取引高 04/10
Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd PlaceKazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place
AuylAuyl51%はいいいえ
RespublicaRespublica21%はいいいえ
$27.7K 取引高 23/08
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage96%はいいいえ
Count BinfaceCount Binface4%はいいいえ
$2.7M 取引高 30/06
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)97%はいいいえ
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)2%はいいいえ
$1.3M 取引高 13/09
Next Prime Minister of Romania?Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru NazareAlexandru Nazare35%はいいいえ
Sorin GrindeanuSorin Grindeanu14%はいいいえ
$3.2M 取引高 31/12
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat68%はいいいえ
RepublicanRepublican33%はいいいえ
$1.1M 取引高 03/11
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface71%はいいいえ
William CloustonWilliam Clouston11%はいいいえ
$222.6K 取引高 30/06
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%はいいいえ
Haley StevensHaley Stevens22%はいいいえ
$1.1M 取引高 04/08
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema90%はいいいえ
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile12%はいいいえ
$102.4K 取引高 14/08
Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionLos Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen BassKaren Bass63%はいいいえ
Nithya RamanNithya Raman38%はいいいえ
$13M 取引高 31/12
MN-02 House Election WinnerMN-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party90%はいいいえ
Republican PartyRepublican Party9%はいいいえ
$8.9K 取引高 04/11
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%はいいいえ
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton6%はいいいえ
$40.4M 取引高 03/11
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori BushCori Bush57%はいいいえ
Wesley BellWesley Bell45%はいいいえ
$85.2K 取引高 04/08
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?
Troy Jackson99%はいいいえ
Nirav Shah1%はいいいえ
$814.2K 取引高 残り5日
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
LPV39%はいいいえ
AS37%はいいいえ
$158.9K 取引高 03/10
WI-07 Republican Primary WinnerWI-07 Republican Primary Winner
Michael AlfonsoMichael Alfonso82%はいいいえ
Kevin HermeningKevin Hermening10%はいいいえ
$6.5K 取引高 11/08
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)98%はいいいえ
New People (NL)New People (NL)1%はいいいえ
$2.8M 取引高 20/09
MI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Callie BarrCallie Barr69%はいいいえ
Kyle BlomquistKyle Blomquist27%はいいいえ
$12.6K 取引高 04/08
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 3013%
$100.9K 取引高 30/09
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second PlaceFlorida Governor Republican Primary Second Place
Jay CollinsJay Collins70%はいいいえ
James FishbackJames Fishback14%はいいいえ
$9.7K 取引高 18/08
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier MileiJavier Milei49%はいいいえ
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof47%はいいいえ
$364.6K 取引高 24/10
Ottawa Mayoral Election WinnerOttawa Mayoral Election Winner
Mark SutcliffeMark Sutcliffe53%はいいいえ
Alex LawsonAlex Lawson27%はいいいえ
$51.7K 取引高 26/10
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca Hong78%はいいいえ
David Crowley9%はいいいえ
$209.4K 取引高 11/08
AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of VictoryAZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Feely 10–15%97%はいいいえ
Feely 20–25%10%はいいいえ
$22.4K 取引高 04/08
FL-02 Republican Primary WinnerFL-02 Republican Primary Winner
Keith GrossKeith Gross53%はいいいえ
Evan PowerEvan Power26%はいいいえ
$5.9K 取引高 18/08
WI-07 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Fred ClarkFred Clark85%はいいいえ
Ginger MurrayGinger Murray4%はいいいえ
$5.7K 取引高 11/08
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
PHPH62%はいいいえ
BNBN40%はいいいえ
$9.5K 取引高 01/08
WI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Mitchell BermanMitchell Berman88%はいいいえ
Lorenzo SantosLorenzo Santos6%はいいいえ
$5.3K 取引高 11/08
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan SantosRenan Santos68%はいいいえ
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado16%はいいいえ
$469K 取引高 04/10
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats WonNext Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won
PLPL73%はいいいえ
MDBMDB20%はいいいえ
$289.6K 取引高 04/10
2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner
UBJP77%はいいいえ
BFP21%はいいいえ
$29.7K 取引高 14/09
Next Mayor of Johannesburg?Next Mayor of Johannesburg?
Frank ChikaneFrank Chikane46%はいいいえ
Helen ZilleHelen Zille44%はいいいえ
$73.1K 取引高 05/11
2026年に上院を制する政党は?2026年に上院を制する政党は?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%はいいいえ
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%はいいいえ
$3.3M 取引高 03/11
Russia Parliamentary Election: TurnoutRussia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
53-56%29%はいいいえ
50-53%19%はいいいえ
$30.3K 取引高 20/09
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed94%はいいいえ
Haley StevensHaley Stevens5%はいいいえ
$6K 取引高 04/08
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg14%はいいいえ
Don LemonDon Lemon13%はいいいえ
$894.9K 取引高 31/12
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson80%はいいいえ
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson17%はいいいえ
$3.3M 取引高 13/09
New Zealand Election: TurnoutNew Zealand Election: Turnout
76-78%76-78%34%はいいいえ
78-80%78-80%33%はいいいえ
$10.6K 取引高 07/11
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary WinnerKansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton94%はいいいえ
Sandy Spidel NeumannSandy Spidel Neumann3%はいいいえ
$162.6K 取引高 04/08
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface <10%35%はいいいえ
Binface 10–20%31%はいいいえ
$118.1K 取引高 30/06
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%はいいいえ
R Senate, D House41%はいいいえ
$8.8M 取引高 03/11
Hawaii Governor Republican Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Republican Primary Winner
Gary CorderyGary Cordery81%はいいいえ
Ken FujiyamaKen Fujiyama10%はいいいえ
$3.8K 取引高 08/08
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
38%
確率
はい いいえ
$474.4K 取引高 03/01
FL-05 Republican Primary WinnerFL-05 Republican Primary Winner
John RutherfordJohn Rutherford93%はいいいえ
Mark KayeMark Kaye3%はいいいえ
$3.8K 取引高 18/08
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 60–70%42%はいいいえ
Farage 70–80%27%はいいいえ
$84K 取引高 30/06
Netanyahuは...までに退任する?Netanyahuは...までに退任する?
December 3141%はいいいえ
July 311%はいいいえ
$3.5K 取引高 31/12
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig98%はいいいえ
Sian AstleySian Astley1%はいいいえ
$337.9K 取引高 30/07
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
10%
確率
はい いいえ
$33.9K 取引高 31/07
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%Lula da Silva 5-10%37%はいいいえ
Lula da Silva 10-15%Lula da Silva 10-15%31%はいいいえ
$290.8K 取引高 04/10
Hawaii Governor Democratic Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Josh GreenJosh Green97%はいいいえ
David BourgoinDavid Bourgoin1%はいいいえ
$3.8K 取引高 08/08
AZ-01 House Election WinnerAZ-01 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party66%はいいいえ
Republican PartyRepublican Party30%はいいいえ
$4.2K 取引高 04/11
HI-02 Democratic Primary WinnerHI-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Jill TokudaJill Tokuda96%はいいいえ
Greg GuithuesGreg Guithues2%はいいいえ
$3.4K 取引高 08/08
Florida Democratic Senate Primary WinnerFlorida Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Alexander VindmanAlexander Vindman88%はいいいえ
Angie NixonAngie Nixon12%はいいいえ
$150.5K 取引高 18/08
Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?
Thorsten FreiThorsten Frei96%はいいいえ
Alexander HoffmannAlexander Hoffmann1%はいいいえ
$16.6K 取引高 残り7日
Nevada Governor Election WinnerNevada Governor Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat52%はいいいえ
RepublicanRepublican49%はいいいえ
$41.3K 取引高 03/11
MT-02 House Election WinnerMT-02 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%はいいいえ
Democratic Party7%はいいいえ
$36.2K 取引高 03/11
Vermont Governor Democratic Primary WinnerVermont Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Aly Richards72%はいいいえ
Amanda Janoo24%はいいいえ
$85.3K 取引高 11/08
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選挙市場 FAQ

なぜ選挙市場は正確なのか？

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現在ライブの選挙市場はどれか？

米国2028、イスラエル（日時別）、英国およびEUの地方選挙、さらに政党予備選があります。最新情報は私たちのページをフォローしてください。

選挙市場でリスクをどのように価格付けするか？

流動性（オーダーブックの深さ）、過去のボラティリティ、決定日を確認してください。流動性が薄い市場は非効率的な価格設定に陥りやすいです。

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