选举预测市场

选举市场是Polymarket的核心 — 美国总统、党内初选、国会竞选，以及任何主要民主国家的投票。2024年美国选举市场的交易量达数十亿。

定价结合了民调、党派财务数据、经济指标和报道 — 所有信息都浓缩成一个价格。为分析师和以观点驱动的投资者提供了丰富的交易基础。

69 活跃市场
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%是否
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%是否
$669.4M 成交量 07/11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2099%是否
July 2299%是否
$3M 成交量 31/08
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%是否
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro24%是否
$115.2M 成交量 04/10
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom20%是否
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%是否
$1.25B 成交量 07/11
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%是否
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%是否
$678.2M 成交量 07/11
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
51%
概率
是 否
$614K 成交量 03/01
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen30%是否
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%是否
$115.7M 成交量 30/04
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot48%是否
Benjamin Netanyahu38%是否
$29M 成交量 31/12
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone68%是否
Ralph NormanRalph Norman21%是否
$343.3K 成交量 11/08
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3190%是否
September 3083%是否
$126.7K 成交量
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)57%是否
New People (NL)New People (NL)37%是否
$15.9M 成交量 20/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro71%是否
Renan SantosRenan Santos18%是否
$4.2M 成交量 04/10
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)97%是否
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)2%是否
$1.3M 成交量 13/09
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke35%是否
CDUCDU28%是否
$3.1M 成交量 20/09
2026年哪个党将赢得众议院?2026年哪个党将赢得众议院?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%是否
Republican PartyRepublican Party15%是否
$21.2K 成交量 03/11
Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd PlaceKazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place
AuylAuyl51%是否
Aq JolAq Jol23%是否
$28.7K 成交量 23/08
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage96%是否
Count BinfaceCount Binface4%是否
$2.7M 成交量 30/06
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%是否
Haley StevensHaley Stevens20%是否
$1.2M 成交量 04/08
Next Prime Minister of Romania?Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru NazareAlexandru Nazare35%是否
Sorin GrindeanuSorin Grindeanu14%是否
$3.2M 成交量 31/12
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat68%是否
RepublicanRepublican33%是否
$1.1M 成交量 03/11
Netanyahu会在...前下台吗?Netanyahu会在...前下台吗?
December 3144%是否
July 311%是否
$15.3K 成交量 31/12
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema90%是否
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile12%是否
$102.4K 成交量 14/08
Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionLos Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen BassKaren Bass63%是否
Nithya RamanNithya Raman38%是否
$13M 成交量 31/12
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%是否
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton7%是否
$40.4M 成交量 03/11
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface72%是否
William CloustonWilliam Clouston10%是否
$222.8K 成交量 30/06
MN-02 House Election WinnerMN-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party90%是否
Republican PartyRepublican Party9%是否
$8.9K 成交量 04/11
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)98%是否
New People (NL)New People (NL)1%是否
$2.8M 成交量 20/09
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
LPV39%是否
AS37%是否
$158.9K 成交量 03/10
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?
Troy Jackson99%是否
Graham Platner1%是否
$815.6K 成交量 还剩 5 天
WI-07 Republican Primary WinnerWI-07 Republican Primary Winner
Michael AlfonsoMichael Alfonso82%是否
Kevin HermeningKevin Hermening8%是否
$6.5K 成交量 11/08
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori BushCori Bush57%是否
Wesley BellWesley Bell45%是否
$86K 成交量 04/08
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 3013%
$100.9K 成交量 30/09
MI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Callie BarrCallie Barr74%是否
Kyle BlomquistKyle Blomquist25%是否
$12.6K 成交量 04/08
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second PlaceFlorida Governor Republican Primary Second Place
Jay CollinsJay Collins57%是否
James FishbackJames Fishback15%是否
$9.7K 成交量 18/08
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%是否
R Senate, D House41%是否
$8.8M 成交量 03/11
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier MileiJavier Milei49%是否
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof47%是否
$364.6K 成交量 24/10
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds96%是否
James FishbackJames Fishback2%是否
$2.1M 成交量 18/08
FL-02 Republican Primary WinnerFL-02 Republican Primary Winner
Keith GrossKeith Gross53%是否
Evan PowerEvan Power26%是否
$6K 成交量 18/08
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan SantosRenan Santos68%是否
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado16%是否
$469.8K 成交量 04/10
WI-07 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Fred ClarkFred Clark85%是否
Ginger MurrayGinger Murray4%是否
$5.8K 成交量 11/08
Georgia Senate Election WinnerGeorgia Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat87%是否
RepublicanRepublican14%是否
$76.5K 成交量 03/11
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
PHPH63%是否
BNBN34%是否
$9.7K 成交量 01/08
WI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Mitchell BermanMitchell Berman88%是否
Lorenzo SantosLorenzo Santos6%是否
$5.3K 成交量 11/08
2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner
UBJP77%是否
BFP21%是否
$29.7K 成交量 14/09
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca Hong78%是否
David Crowley9%是否
$209.7K 成交量 11/08
Next Mayor of Johannesburg?Next Mayor of Johannesburg?
Frank ChikaneFrank Chikane46%是否
Helen ZilleHelen Zille44%是否
$73.1K 成交量 05/11
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg14%是否
Don LemonDon Lemon13%是否
$895.1K 成交量 31/12
2026年哪个党将赢得参议院?2026年哪个党将赢得参议院?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%是否
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%是否
$3.3M 成交量 03/11
AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of VictoryAZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Feely 10–15%97%是否
Feely 20–25%10%是否
$22.4K 成交量 04/08
Russia Parliamentary Election: TurnoutRussia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
53-56%29%是否
50-53%19%是否
$30.3K 成交量 20/09
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed94%是否
Haley StevensHaley Stevens6%是否
$6K 成交量 04/08
New Zealand Election: TurnoutNew Zealand Election: Turnout
76-78%76-78%34%是否
78-80%78-80%33%是否
$10.6K 成交量 07/11
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson80%是否
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson17%是否
$3.3M 成交量 13/09
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary WinnerKansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton94%是否
Sandy Spidel NeumannSandy Spidel Neumann3%是否
$162.6K 成交量 04/08
Hawaii Governor Republican Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Republican Primary Winner
Gary CorderyGary Cordery81%是否
Ken FujiyamaKen Fujiyama10%是否
$3.8K 成交量 08/08
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface <10%35%是否
Binface 10–20%31%是否
$118.2K 成交量 30/06
FL-05 Republican Primary WinnerFL-05 Republican Primary Winner
John RutherfordJohn Rutherford93%是否
Mark KayeMark Kaye3%是否
$3.8K 成交量 18/08
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 60–70%39%是否
Farage 70–80%27%是否
$84K 成交量 30/06
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%Lula da Silva 5-10%36%是否
Lula da Silva 10-15%Lula da Silva 10-15%30%是否
$291.1K 成交量 04/10
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig98%是否
Sian AstleySian Astley1%是否
$337.9K 成交量 30/07
Hawaii Governor Democratic Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Josh GreenJosh Green97%是否
George Lucas-TadeoGeorge Lucas-Tadeo1%是否
$3.8K 成交量 08/08
AZ-01 House Election WinnerAZ-01 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party65%是否
Republican PartyRepublican Party30%是否
$4.2K 成交量 04/11
HI-02 Democratic Primary WinnerHI-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Jill TokudaJill Tokuda96%是否
Greg GuithuesGreg Guithues2%是否
$3.4K 成交量 08/08
Florida Democratic Senate Primary WinnerFlorida Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Alexander VindmanAlexander Vindman88%是否
Angie NixonAngie Nixon12%是否
$150.5K 成交量 18/08
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
10%
概率
是 否
$33.9K 成交量 31/07
Ottawa Mayoral Election WinnerOttawa Mayoral Election Winner
Mark SutcliffeMark Sutcliffe52%是否
Alex LawsonAlex Lawson27%是否
$51.7K 成交量 26/10
Nevada Governor Election WinnerNevada Governor Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat52%是否
RepublicanRepublican49%是否
$41.3K 成交量 03/11
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat69%是否
RepublicanRepublican32%是否
$128.8K 成交量 03/11
MT-02 House Election WinnerMT-02 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%是否
Democratic Party7%是否
$36.2K 成交量 03/11
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选举市场常见问题

为什么选举市场准确？

它们需要“投入真实资金” — 人们将钱投入他们的观点，从而过滤掉低质量的噪音。交易量越大，价格越可靠。

现在有哪些选举市场在进行？

美国2028年、以色列（按日期）、英国和欧盟地方选举，以及党内初选。请关注我们的页面以获取更新。

我如何在选举市场中定价风险？

检查流动性（订单簿深度）、历史波动性和决策日期。流动性不足的市场容易出现低效定价。

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