Geopolitics Prediction Markets
Geopolitics prediction markets price the world's biggest power struggles - wars, military clashes, sanctions, peace talks and international deals - as live probabilities that update with every headline.
On Polymarket these markets often carry deep liquidity around fast-moving news events and run for weeks or months. Polymarkets tracks the real prices and probabilities across active conflicts and power shifts worldwide, so you can read the crowd's view in real time, compare scenarios, and practice risk-free in training mode before trading on Polymarket.
December 3124%YesNo
September 231%YesNo
Nicolás Maduro85%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez11%YesNo
June 30, 202754%YesNoMarch 31, 202733%YesNo
Xi Jinping94%YesNo
Vladimir Putin83%YesNo
December 314%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
January 31, 202770%YesNo
December 31, 202656%YesNo
December 317%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate77%YesNo
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate23%YesNo
October 31, 202692%
November 3029%
December 31, 202753%YesNo
March 31, 202724%YesNo
Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken71%YesNo
No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken24%YesNo
No Meeting by December 3156%YesNo
Qatar14%YesNo
October 299%YesNo
October 399%YesNo
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate24%
Oil < $80; R Senate1%
No government formed46%YesNo
Other25%YesNo
October 312%
December 3110%
December 314%YesNo
March 311%YesNo
June 30, 20277%YesNo
December 312%YesNo
Mohammed bin Salman83%YesNoVladimir Putin83%YesNo
December 317%YesNo
January 311%YesNo
Kazem Gharibabadi43%YesNo
Jared Kushner40%YesNo
December 3113%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
December 3119%YesNo
November 309%YesNo
September 3025%YesNo
December 315%YesNo
December 3112%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate78%YesNo
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate22%YesNo
December 3139%YesNo
November 3029%YesNo
Lana Nusseibeh28%YesNo
Olara Otunnu22%YesNoDem sweep; No Phase II54%YesNo
No Dem sweep; No Phase II24%YesNo
November 3027%YesNo
October 312%YesNo
<5837%YesNo
58-6020%YesNo
December 31, 202714%YesNo
June 30, 20277%YesNo
Saudi Arabia26%YesNo
China4%YesNo
December 3147%YesNo
November 3036%YesNo
No meeting by December 31, 202776%YesNo
United States5%YesNoGeopolitics markets FAQ
What do geopolitics markets cover?
Wars and military clashes, ceasefires and peace talks, sanctions, international deals, elections with global stakes, and broader shifts in power between major countries - each as a yes/no or multi-outcome market with a live probability.
How do the odds work?
Each outcome trades between 1¢ and 99¢; the price is the market's implied probability. Prices move in real time as traders react to news, so they reflect the current consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
Can I follow or test these without risk?
Yes. Polymarkets's free training mode lets you paper-trade any market with live prices and $1,000 in practice money - no card, no risk - before going to Polymarket.
