Geopolitics Prediction Markets
Geopolitics prediction markets price the world's biggest power struggles - wars, military clashes, sanctions, peace talks and international deals - as live probabilities that update with every headline.
On Polymarket these markets often carry deep liquidity around fast-moving news events and run for weeks or months. Polymarkets tracks the real prices and probabilities across active conflicts and power shifts worldwide, so you can read the crowd's view in real time, compare scenarios, and practice risk-free in training mode before trading on Polymarket.
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate76%YesNo
Oil ≥ $85; R Senate23%YesNo
December 314%YesNo
January 311%YesNo
December 3160%YesNo
October 312%YesNo
4+37%YesNo
231%YesNo
November 3047%YesNo
October 312%YesNo
No Next Minister by Feb 2846%YesNo
Orit Farkash-Hacohen16%YesNo
10+37%YesNo
20+19%YesNo
October 596%YesNo
October 495%YesNo
No Next Minister by Feb 2844%YesNo
Avigdor Lieberman7%YesNo
No Next Minister by Feb 2844%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot12%YesNo
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202689%YesNoDecember4%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
November 3050%YesNo
January 31, 202769%YesNo
January 15, 202756%YesNo
Geraldo Alckmin36%YesNo
Rafael Fonteles29%YesNo
December 3112%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
Wang Huning4%YesNo
Li Xi3%YesNo
December 31, 202550%YesNo
December 31, 20263%YesNo
December 3124%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
No Next Minister by Feb 2846%YesNo
Yoram Cohen15%YesNo
Venezuela7%YesNo
Lebanon7%YesNo
Kuomintang (KMT)74%YesNo
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)21%YesNo
Mark Rutte52%YesNo
Ursula von der Leyen48%YesNo
No Next Minister by Feb 2846%YesNo
Yair Lapid22%YesNo
December 3112%YesNo
November 3010%YesNo
November 3010%
December 3133%
December 31, 202727%YesNo
June 30, 202723%YesNo
March 31, 202747%YesNo
December 3117%YesNo
November 3031%YesNo
November 1523%YesNo
November 3050%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
December 3126%YesNo
October 312%YesNo
Mark Rutte13%YesNo
Pope Leo XIV4%YesNoDecember 3131%YesNo
November 3018%YesNo
December 3177%YesNo
November 3050%YesNo
No Next Minister by Feb 2845%YesNo
Avigdor Lieberman24%YesNo
Camilo Santana46%YesNo
Fernando Haddad16%YesNo
Geopolitics markets FAQ
What do geopolitics markets cover?
Wars and military clashes, ceasefires and peace talks, sanctions, international deals, elections with global stakes, and broader shifts in power between major countries - each as a yes/no or multi-outcome market with a live probability.
How do the odds work?
Each outcome trades between 1¢ and 99¢; the price is the market's implied probability. Prices move in real time as traders react to news, so they reflect the current consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
Can I follow or test these without risk?
Yes. Polymarkets's free training mode lets you paper-trade any market with live prices and $1,000 in practice money - no card, no risk - before going to Polymarket.
