伊朗预测市场

伊朗预测市场跟踪关键发展：核浓缩、国际原子能机构报告、核协议谈判、制裁的施加或解除，以及地区事件。价格实时反应来自西奈、维也纳和德黑兰的新闻。

这些市场通常在新闻事件周围具有强劲的流动性和较长的到期时间（几个月到一年），使得动态交易成为可能。

54 个活跃市场
排序
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
25%
概率
是 否
$80.6万 成交量 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%是否
July 2999%是否
$1,180.8万 成交量 31/08
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%是否
No Head of State7%是否
$3,736万 成交量 31/12
7月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 7月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
1%
概率
是 否
$98.8万 成交量 今日截止
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3112%是否
September 308%是否
$6,857.5万 成交量 今日截止
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 318%
August 151%
$98.8万 成交量 31/08
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3160%是否
August 1449%是否
$831.3万 成交量 31/08
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3129%是否
September 3011%是否
$1,193.7万 成交量 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3187%是否
October 3180%是否
$199.8万 成交量 31/08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3119%是否
September 3015%是否
$885.4万 成交量 今日截止
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3124%是否
August 1511%是否
$2,548万 成交量 今日截止
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3152%是否
September 3046%是否
$701.9万 成交量 31/08
9月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 9月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
18%
概率
是 否
$98.8万 成交量 30/09
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 309%
$25.3万 成交量 30/09
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202731%是否
December 3121%是否
$2,137.5万 成交量 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 999%是否
July 1299%是否
$266.9万 成交量 今日截止
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3138%是否
August 1519%是否
$6万 成交量 今日截止
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 315%是否
March 311%是否
$5.8万 成交量 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%是否
September 305%是否
$2,897.5万 成交量 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+1%是否
100+1%是否
$4.8万 成交量 今日截止
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 156%是否
July 311%是否
$857.4万 成交量 今日截止
12月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 12月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
52%
概率
是 否
$98.8万 成交量 31/12
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$65.7万 成交量 31/08
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3040%是否
瑞士25%是否
$1.8万 成交量 30/09
伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？ 伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？
9%
概率
是 否
$2.3万 成交量 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%是否
October 316%是否
$1,760.5万 成交量 31/12
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3126%是否
August 316%是否
$96.2万 成交量
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3127%是否
July 312%是否
$19.9万 成交量 31/08
7月27日当周有多少船只通过霍尔木兹海峡？7月27日当周有多少船只通过霍尔木兹海峡？
50-7455%是否
75-9922%是否
$1.4万 成交量 还剩 3 天
WTI原油在___前创历史新高？WTI原油在___前创历史新高？
December 3114%是否
September 306%是否
$218.4万 成交量 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1143%是否
August 1743%是否
$1.2万 成交量 31/08
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3112%是否
July 312%是否
$48.4万 成交量 今日截止
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
98%
概率
是 否
$2.1万 成交量 今日截止
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$22.8万 成交量 31/08
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%是否
July 311%是否
$130.9万 成交量 今日截止
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
51%
概率
是 否
$84.4万 成交量 20/08
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%是否
September 3011%是否
$611.5万 成交量 今日截止
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3164%是否
October 3154%是否
$141.1万 成交量 31/08
伊朗政权会在9月30日前垮台吗？ 伊朗政权会在9月30日前垮台吗？
3%
概率
是 否
$2.3万 成交量 30/09
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
2%
概率
是 否
$7.2万 成交量 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3110%是否
September 306%是否
$819.7万 成交量 今日截止
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%是否
October 319%是否
$23.6万 成交量 31/12
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Benjamin Netanyahu1%是否
Abbas Araghchi1%是否
$203.1万 成交量 今日截止
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%是否
April 301%是否
$1,217.2万 成交量 今日截止
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%是否
June 301%是否
$2,170.5万 成交量 今日截止
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 311%是否
July 141%是否
$13.5万 成交量 今日截止
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
澳大利亚2%是否
美国1%是否
$4,673 成交量 今日截止
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)39%是否
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)30%是否
$41万 成交量 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%是否
December14%是否
$16.2万 成交量 31/12
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 314%是否
July 311%是否
$17.2万 成交量 31/12
伊朗是否在7月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？ 伊朗是否在7月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？
1%
概率
是 否
$5,937 成交量 今日截止
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 311%
August 315%
$8.4万 成交量 31/08
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
概率
是 否
$7.7万 成交量 30/09
伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？ 伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？
26%
概率
是 否
$5,937 成交量 31/12
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伊朗市场常见问题

Polymarket上有哪些伊朗市场？

核市场（伊朗会达到90%的浓缩吗？）、制裁（制裁X会在日期Y之前解除吗？）、外交（会签署协议吗？）和军事冲突市场。

是什么影响伊朗市场价格？

概率来自实时订单簿深度。国际原子能机构报告、德黑兰或华盛顿的声明，以及主要媒体报道可以在几分钟内影响价格。

在地区升级期间我可以交易吗？

可以。Polymarket在紧张局势期间保持活跃，交易量显著增加。交易地缘政治市场需要严格的风险管理。

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