Marchés de Prédiction Trump

Les marchés de prédiction Trump sont parmi les plus actifs de Polymarket — mandat, procédures judiciaires, politique étrangère (Ukraine, Chine, Moyen-Orient), politique intérieure et approbation générale. Les volumes dépassent des centaines de millions de dollars.

Ces marchés réagissent fortement à chaque déclaration majeure — via Truth Social, interviews ou annonces de la Maison Blanche. La couverture médiatique en temps réel crée des opportunités de trading.

41 marchés actifs
Trump out as President by July 31? Trump out as President by July 31?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$313.8K Vol 31/07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
30%
de chance
Oui Non
$193K Vol 31/12
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
36%
de chance
Oui Non
$2.4M Vol 01/01
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 1518%OuiNon
July 319%OuiNon
$7.9M Vol 31/07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
August 3146%OuiNon
August 1528%OuiNon
$736.5K Vol 31/08
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ? Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ?
10%
de chance
Oui Non
$112.3K Vol 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in July?Who will Trump meet with in July?
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu49%OuiNon
Elon MuskElon Musk14%OuiNon
$58.5K Vol 31/07
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3139%OuiNon
July 317%OuiNon
$51.6K Vol 31/07
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro81%OuiNon
Delcy Rodríguez12%OuiNon
$94.1M Vol 31/12
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?
August 3173%OuiNon
July 3152%OuiNon
$278.8K Vol 2 jours restants
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20268%OuiNon
September 30, 2026September 30, 20263%OuiNon
$6.1M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3027%OuiNon
Suisse23%OuiNon
$20.6K Vol 30/09
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3124%OuiNon
October 3113%OuiNon
$870.1K Vol 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3124%OuiNon
July 318%OuiNon
$1.1M Vol 31/07
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$313.8K Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%OuiNon
October 3123%OuiNon
$5.6M Vol 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
de chance
Oui Non
$13.2K Vol 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3114%OuiNon
October 317%OuiNon
$17.4M Vol 31/12
US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?
October 3147%OuiNon
December 3147%OuiNon
$18.2K Vol 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3114%OuiNon
September 307%OuiNon
$28.6M Vol 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+12%OuiNon
40+7%OuiNon
$10.6K Vol 31/07
What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?
Inflation 20+ times87%OuiNon
Balance Sheet84%OuiNon
$10.4K Vol 7 jours restants
Décision de la Fed en octobre ?Décision de la Fed en octobre ?
No change56%OuiNon
25 bps increase32%OuiNon
$4M Vol 28/10
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa2%OuiNon
Mohammed bin Salman2%OuiNon
$2M Vol 01/08
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Congress99%OuiNon
World Cup99%OuiNon
$7.6K Vol 31/07
What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents Dinner?What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents Dinner?
Fake News86%OuiNon
Sleepy54%OuiNon
$15.2K Vol 2 jours restants
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?
December 31, 202616%
December 31, 202743%
$6.1K Vol 31/12
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%OuiNon
September 303%OuiNon
$13.7K Vol 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
July 2393%OuiNon
July 2492%OuiNon
$6.1K Vol 31/07
What will Trump say this week? (July 20 - July 26)What will Trump say this week? (July 20 - July 26)
Bibi / Netanyahu93%OuiNon
Champion78%OuiNon
$5.4K Vol 4 jours restants
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
90%
de chance
Oui Non
$7K Vol 31/12
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$10.5M Vol 31/12
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
August 3184%OuiNon
August 1565%OuiNon
$4.6K Vol 31/08
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?
June 301%
November 235%
$29.4K Vol 31/12
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$4.1K Vol 31/07
L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 juillet ? L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 juillet ?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$7.2K Vol 31/07
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3172%OuiNon
ChinaChina14%OuiNon
$3.4K Vol 31/12
L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ? L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ?
22%
de chance
Oui Non
$7.2K Vol 31/12
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Daniel PennyDaniel Penny60%OuiNon
Donald BrodieDonald Brodie45%OuiNon
$374.5K Vol 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries81%OuiNon
D-Wave73%OuiNon
$160.8K Vol 31/12
Trump meets with Putin by...?Trump meets with Putin by...?
December 3129%OuiNon
September 309%OuiNon
$95.1K Vol 31/12
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FAQ sur les Marchés Trump

Quels marchés Trump sont en direct maintenant ?

Approbation annuelle, résultats de politiques spécifiques, procédures judiciaires, résultats de négociations internationales et décisions de nominations de hauts fonctionnaires.

Qu'est-ce qui fait bouger les prix ?

Les déclarations de Trump (en particulier sur Truth Social), les annonces officielles de la Maison Blanche, les décisions judiciaires et les actions du Congrès. Les réactions sont très rapides.

Comment gérer le risque sur les marchés Trump ?

Haute volatilité — constituez des positions progressivement, évitez la sur-concentration dans un seul marché et vérifiez la profondeur du carnet de commandes avant d'entrer.

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