Fed · fomc

Fed Decision in December?

$2.1M Volume
09/12/2026 23:59
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No change
$480 Volume
58%
25 bps increase
$900 Volume
38%
25 bps decrease
$258 Volume
6%
50+ bps decrease
$252 Volume
4%
50+ bps increase
$244 Volume
2%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Fed Decision in December?
It's a genuine race: No change edges the field at 58%, barely ahead of 25 bps increase at 38%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for Fed Decision in December?
At 58% implied for No change, the market isn't committing. Expect these numbers to move as the picture develops.
When does the Fed Decision in December market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 9 Dec 2026 (132 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Fed Decision in December?
Traders have put $2.1M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Fed Decision in December on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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