特朗普预测市场

特朗普预测市场是Polymarket中最活跃的市场之一——任期、法律程序、外交政策（乌克兰、中国、中东）、国内政策和总体批准。交易量超过数亿美元。

这些市场对每一个重大声明反应强烈——通过Truth Social、采访或白宫公告。实时新闻报道创造了交易机会。

41 活跃市场
Trump out as President by July 31? Trump out as President by July 31?
1%
概率
是 否
$318K 成交量 31/07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
31%
概率
是 否
$218.3K 成交量 31/12
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
37%
概率
是 否
$2.4M 成交量 01/01
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 1519%是否
July 319%是否
$7.9M 成交量 31/07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
August 3146%是否
August 1528%是否
$736.6K 成交量 31/08
伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗? 伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗?
10%
概率
是 否
$104.6K 成交量 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in July?Who will Trump meet with in July?
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu51%是否
Elon MuskElon Musk15%是否
$56.4K 成交量 31/07
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3139%是否
July 317%是否
$54K 成交量 31/07
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro81%是否
Delcy Rodríguez12%是否
$94.1M 成交量 31/12
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?
August 3169%是否
July 3154%是否
$280.8K 成交量 还剩 2 天
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20268%是否
September 30, 2026September 30, 20263%是否
$6.1M 成交量 今日截止
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Illegal / Illegals99%是否
Alien99%是否
$25.2K 成交量 31/07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%是否
October 3123%是否
$5.6M 成交量 31/12
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3027%是否
瑞士23%是否
$20.5K 成交量 30/09
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
8%
概率
是 否
$318K 成交量 31/12
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3124%是否
October 3113%是否
$870.1K 成交量 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3124%是否
July 318%是否
$1.1M 成交量 31/07
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
概率
是 否
$12.8K 成交量 31/12
10月美联储决议?10月美联储决议?
No change56%是否
25 bps increase32%是否
$3.9M 成交量 28/10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3114%是否
October 317%是否
$17.4M 成交量 31/12
US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?
October 3147%是否
December 3146%是否
$18.2K 成交量 31/12
What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?
Inflation 20+ times87%是否
Balance Sheet84%是否
$11.1K 成交量 还剩 7 天
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3114%是否
September 307%是否
$28.6M 成交量 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+12%是否
40+7%是否
$10.7K 成交量 31/07
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa2%是否
Mohammed bin Salman2%是否
$2M 成交量 01/08
What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents Dinner?What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents Dinner?
Fake News86%是否
Sleepy54%是否
$15.4K 成交量 还剩 2 天
Netanyahu arrested by…?Netanyahu arrested by…?
December 316%是否
September 303%是否
$13.9K 成交量 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
July 2492%是否
July 2391%是否
$6.1K 成交量 31/07
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?
December 31, 202616%
December 31, 202743%
$6.1K 成交量 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (July 20 - July 26)What will Trump say this week? (July 20 - July 26)
Bibi / Netanyahu94%是否
Champion78%是否
$5.1K 成交量 还剩 4 天
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
90%
概率
是 否
$6.8K 成交量 31/12
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
8%
概率
是 否
$10.5M 成交量 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 17 - July 24, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 17 - July 24, 2026?
120-13963%是否
140-15920%是否
$9.2K 成交量 今日截止
Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?Federal Gas Tax Suspended by...?
June 301%
November 228%
$29.5K 成交量 31/12
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
1%
概率
是 否
$4.3K 成交量 31/07
伊朗是否在7月31日前同意停止铀浓缩? 伊朗是否在7月31日前同意停止铀浓缩?
1%
概率
是 否
$7.2K 成交量 31/07
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3172%是否
ChinaChina14%是否
$3.4K 成交量 31/12
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Daniel PennyDaniel Penny58%是否
Donald BrodieDonald Brodie45%是否
$374.6K 成交量 31/12
伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩? 伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩?
22%
概率
是 否
$7.2K 成交量 31/12
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31, 202550%是否
December 3120%是否
$3.1M 成交量 31/12
Which companies will the US take a stake in?Which companies will the US take a stake in?
GlobalFoundries81%是否
D-Wave72%是否
$160.8K 成交量 31/12
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特朗普市场常见问题

现在有哪些特朗普市场在进行？

年度批准、特定政策结果、法律程序、国际谈判结果和高级任命决定。

什么因素影响价格？

特朗普的声明（尤其是Truth Social）、官方白宫公告、法院裁决和国会行动。反应非常迅速。

我如何在特朗普市场中管理风险？

高波动性——逐步建立头寸，避免在单一市场中过度集中，并在进入之前检查订单簿深度。

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