Trump Prediction Markets

Trump prediction markets are among Polymarket's most active - tenure, legal proceedings, foreign policy (Ukraine, China, Middle East), domestic policy, and general approval. Volumes exceed hundreds of millions of dollars.

These markets react strongly to every major statement - via Truth Social, interviews, or White House announcements. Real-time news coverage creates trading opportunities.

332 active markets
Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?
Nobody49%YesNo
Pete HegsethPete Hegseth26%YesNo
$19.2K Volume 01/01
Fed Decision in January?Fed Decision in January?
No change70%YesNo
25 bps increase27%YesNo
$590.8K Volume 28/01
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner44%YesNo
Abbas AraghchiAbbas Araghchi44%YesNo
$5.7K Volume 01/01
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
None before 202737%YesNo
Susie Wiles26%YesNo
$5.5K Volume 01/01
Marco Rubio announces a presidential run by...?Marco Rubio announces a presidential run by...?
March 31, 202711%
June 30, 202732%
$5.1K Volume 01/07
Iran blockade lifted before US x Iran ceasefire ends? Iran blockade lifted before US x Iran ceasefire ends?
1%
chance
Yes No
$5.4K Volume 01/07
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin83%YesNo
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman81%YesNo
$14.7K Volume 01/01
Next Press Secretary?Next Press Secretary?
Anna KellyAnna Kelly20%YesNo
Scott JenningsScott Jennings6%YesNo
$366.1K Volume 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
6+48%YesNo
539%YesNo
$43.8K Volume Ends today
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
John Brennan20%YesNo
Mahmoud Khalil20%YesNo
$649K Volume 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?
1146%YesNo
1030%YesNo
$32.9K Volume Ends today
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 311%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
$6.4M Volume 01/01
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by...?Trump renames New Mexico to New America by...?
September 301%
December 313%
$180.5K Volume 01/01
SAVE Act becomes law by...?SAVE Act becomes law by...?
December 316%YesNo
June 302%YesNo
$585.6K Volume 01/01
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
November 3082%YesNo
December 3165%YesNo
$2.6M Volume 01/01
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?
200+79%YesNo
180-19910%YesNo
$17K Volume 13/11
JD Vance announces a presidential run by...?JD Vance announces a presidential run by...?
March 31, 202727%
June 30, 202754%
$2.9K Volume 01/07
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)
190+57%YesNo
185-18918%YesNo
$58.5K Volume Ends today
US x China Military clash before 2027? US x China Military clash before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes No
$222.7K Volume 01/01
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
7%
chance
Yes No
$53.4K Volume 01/01
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30?
10+37%YesNo
20+32%YesNo
$3.4K Volume 01/12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
29%
chance
Yes No
$237.8K Volume 01/01
US imposes new sanctions on China by...?US imposes new sanctions on China by...?
October 31, 202692%
November 3011%
$2.7K Volume 01/12
Jon Ossoff announces a presidential run by...?Jon Ossoff announces a presidential run by...?
March 31, 202724%
June 30, 202741%
$2.5K Volume 01/07
Who will Trump speak to by October 31?Who will Trump speak to by October 31?
Mark RutteMark Rutte13%YesNo
Pope Leo XIVPope Leo XIV4%YesNo
$11.6K Volume Ends today
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4858%YesNo
4719%YesNo
$33K Volume Ends today
What will Trump say in November?What will Trump say in November?
Space Force85%YesNo
Keep America Great72%YesNo
$2.1K Volume 01/12
Will Trump be impeached by...?Will Trump be impeached by...?
December 31, 202767%YesNo
June 30, 202751%YesNo
$2.1K Volume 01/01
Next US Senate Minority Leader?Next US Senate Minority Leader?
John ThuneJohn Thune65%YesNo
Chuck SchumerChuck Schumer19%YesNo
$17.8K Volume 03/01
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
11%
chance
Yes No
$289K Volume 01/01
US strike on Mexico by...?US strike on Mexico by...?
December 313%YesNo
January 311%YesNo
$3.5M Volume 01/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?
1050%YesNo
11+41%YesNo
$21.3K Volume Ends today
What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
↓ 37%90%YesNo
↓ 35%59%YesNo
$28.5K Volume 01/07
U.S. nuclear test by...?U.S. nuclear test by...?
November 3050%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
$812.2K Volume 01/01
Trump goes to space in 2026? Trump goes to space in 2026?
2%
chance
Yes No
$68.1K Volume 01/01
Insurrection Act invoked by...?Insurrection Act invoked by...?
December 3112%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
$1.2M Volume 01/01
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
4%
chance
Yes No
$68.8K Volume 01/01
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on November 5? Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on November 5?
87%
chance
Yes No
$2.1K Volume 3 days left
Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by...?Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by...?
September 301%
December 319%
$13.1K Volume 01/01
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by...?Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by...?
December 31, 202727%YesNo
June 30, 202720%YesNo
$1.2K Volume 01/01
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31? Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
44%
chance
Yes No
$1.2K Volume 01/01
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 314%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$2.3M Volume 01/01
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026? Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
9%
chance
Yes No
$1.1K Volume 01/01
US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks? US imports Russian diesel before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?
30%
chance
Yes No
$5.1K Volume 01/07
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Susie Wiles37%YesNo
Pete Hegseth35%YesNo
$1.1K Volume 01/01
AOC announces a presidential run by...?AOC announces a presidential run by...?
March 31, 202730%
June 30, 202743%
$1.1K Volume 01/07
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?
7+42%YesNo
635%YesNo
$40.6K Volume Ends today
Trump approval rating on November 6?Trump approval rating on November 6?
38.5–38.942%YesNo
39.0–39.441%YesNo
$1K Volume 4 days left
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Trump Markets FAQ

Which Trump markets are live now?

Annual approval, specific policy outcomes, legal proceedings, international negotiation outcomes, and senior-appointment decisions.

What moves prices?

Trump statements (especially Truth Social), official White House announcements, court rulings, and Congressional action. Reactions are very fast.

How do I manage risk in Trump markets?

High volatility - build positions gradually, avoid over-concentration in a single market, and check order-book depth before entering.

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