Pasar Prediksi Perang Israel–Hamas

Israel–Hamas adalah salah satu kluster yang paling aktif diperdagangkan sejak 7 Oktober. Para trader memperkirakan pelepasan sandera, gencatan senjata yang dimediasi Qatar/Mesir, kemajuan IDF di Rafah, operasi berulang di Gaza utara, dan pertanyaan besar: siapa yang memerintah Gaza setelah perang.

Volume melonjak setelah setiap pengumuman kabinet perang Israel, putaran negosiasi Doha, tembakan roket di kantong Gaza atau Israel tengah, dan pernyataan Biden/Trump. Pasar yang sangat volatil dan reaktif terhadap berita.

23 pasar aktif
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2399%YaTidak
July 2299%YaTidak
$5.1M Volume 31/08
Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Juli? Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Juli?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$585.4K Volume 6 hari tersisa
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
August 3153%YaTidak
August 1544%YaTidak
$6M Volume 31/08
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3152%YaTidak
August 1433%YaTidak
$2.7M Volume 31/08
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
August 3164%YaTidak
August 1543%YaTidak
$1.1M Volume 31/08
Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Desember? Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Desember?
52%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$585.4K Volume 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 2373%YaTidak
July 2557%YaTidak
$2.2M Volume 7 hari tersisa
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3139%YaTidak
August 1539%YaTidak
$41.4K Volume 7 hari tersisa
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3034%YaTidak
Swiss25%YaTidak
$39.4K Volume 30/09
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%YaTidak
September 3014%YaTidak
$10.9M Volume 31/08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3137%YaTidak
October 3123%YaTidak
$5.6M Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3114%YaTidak
October 317%YaTidak
$17.4M Volume 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3114%YaTidak
September 307%YaTidak
$28.7M Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3127%YaTidak
October 3113%YaTidak
$894.5K Volume 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3113%YaTidak
September 306%YaTidak
$8M Volume Berakhir hari ini
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 314%
August 316%
$17.8K Volume 31/08
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2853%YaTidak
July 2951%YaTidak
$1.1M Volume Berakhir hari ini
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
July 311%YaTidak
June 301%YaTidak
$12.1M Volume Berakhir hari ini
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland24%YaTidak
Syria16%YaTidak
$4.3K Volume 31/12
Akankah Iran setuju menghentikan pengayaan uranium sebelum 31 Juli? Akankah Iran setuju menghentikan pengayaan uranium sebelum 31 Juli?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$6.1K Volume 6 hari tersisa
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 319%
$74.5K Volume 31/08
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 313%
August 3111%
$13.4K Volume 31/08
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani49%YaTidak
Rafael Grossi48%YaTidak
$56.5K Volume 31/08
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FAQ Pasar Israel–Hamas

Pasar Israel–Hamas mana yang terbuka?

Pasar pelepasan sandera (kelompok atau individu), pasar gencatan senjata penuh/sebagian, pasar status Sinwar/Haniyeh, pasar operasi Rafah, dan pasar pemerintahan Gaza pasca-perang.

Apa yang mempengaruhi harga pasar?

Putaran negosiasi Doha dan Kairo (Witkoff, mediator, Bourita), pernyataan politik (Netanyahu, Gantz, Smotrich), posting Telegram Hamas, dan tembakan roket di kantong Gaza dan Israel tengah.

Perbedaan antara pasar 'Israel–Hamas' dan 'Gaza'?

Pasar 'Israel–Hamas' fokus pada perang langsung dan negosiasi. Pasar 'Gaza' lebih luas, termasuk bantuan kemanusiaan, Rafah, dan pemerintahan sipil. Beberapa tumpang tindih, aliran yang berbeda.

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