This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 12%, while No trades at 89%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 12%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Total turnover stands at $102. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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