Iran Prediction Markets

Iran prediction markets track critical developments: nuclear enrichment, IAEA reports, nuclear-deal negotiations, sanctions imposed or lifted, and regional events. Prices move in real time reacting to news out of Sinai, Vienna and Tehran.

These markets typically have strong liquidity around news events and longer expirations (months to a year), enabling dynamic trading.

154 active markets
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
2%
chance
Yes No
$11.9M Volume 01/01
How many UKMTO notices November 2–8?How many UKMTO notices November 2–8?
4-753%YesNo
8-1131%YesNo
$130 Volume 6 days left
Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?
December 3111%YesNo
November 303%YesNo
$29.1K Volume 01/01
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31, 202739%YesNo
June 30, 202722%YesNo
$8.6M Volume 01/01
Will Iran target Qatar by...?Will Iran target Qatar by...?
December 31December 3173%YesNo
October 31October 314%YesNo
$119 Volume 01/01
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?
270M3%YesNo
280M3%YesNo
$107 Volume 12/11
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$106 Volume 01/01
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of November?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of November?
0-434%YesNo
10-1421%YesNo
$297 Volume 01/12
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?
November 3064%YesNo
November 1542%YesNo
$96 Volume 01/12
Khamenei # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?Khamenei # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?
<575%YesNo
55-5925%YesNo
$11.4K Volume 13/11
Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31? Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?
9%
chance
Yes No
$53 Volume 01/01
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3110%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
$101.7K Volume 01/01
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?
25-2946%YesNo
30-3437%YesNo
$304 Volume 6 days left
Will Iran target Kuwait by...?Will Iran target Kuwait by...?
November 3057%YesNo
October 317%YesNo
$46 Volume 01/12
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3113%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$1.8M Volume 01/01
Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out? Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?
59%
chance
Yes No
$5K Volume 01/07
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
November 1557%
November 3075%
$21 Volume 01/12
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 316%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$206.9K Volume 01/01
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?
September 301%
December 319%
$15.2K Volume 01/01
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
October 315%
November 3022%
$10 Volume 01/12
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
September 2992%YesNo
September 2891%YesNo
$427 Volume Ends today
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?
December 314%YesNo
July 241%YesNo
$119.7K Volume 01/01
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
24%
chance
Yes No
$5 Volume 01/01
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
December 3111%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$337.5K Volume 31/12
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
18%
chance
Yes No
$56.3K Volume 01/01
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?
December 3113%YesNo
October 317%YesNo
$11.7K Volume 31/12
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November?Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November?
30-3442%YesNo
<2041%YesNo
$181 Volume 01/12
IEA asks France to release oil stocks by...?IEA asks France to release oil stocks by...?
October 311%
December 3126%
$8.4K Volume 01/01
US x Russia military clash by...?US x Russia military clash by...?
December 31, 20264%YesNo
December 311%YesNo
$1.8M Volume 01/01
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
December 315%YesNo
August 311%YesNo
$1.1M Volume 01/01
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 314%YesNo
July 171%YesNo
$1M Volume 01/01
Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?
December 3111%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
$885K Volume 01/01
Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?
December 316%
June 301%
$767.5K Volume 01/01
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 315%YesNo
May 311%YesNo
$629.4K Volume 01/01
US military draft authorized in 2026? US military draft authorized in 2026?
2%
chance
Yes No
$549K Volume 01/01
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
December 3118%YesNo
October 313%YesNo
$334K Volume 31/12
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
5%
chance
Yes No
$274.4K Volume 01/01
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 313%YesNo
June 151%YesNo
$201.5K Volume 01/01
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes No
$195.8K Volume 01/01
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes No
$161.5K Volume 01/01
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
8%
chance
Yes No
$135.1K Volume 01/01
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
September 2549%YesNo
September 2746%YesNo
$2.4K Volume Ends today
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?
December 3112%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
$90.3K Volume 01/01
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
2%
chance
Yes No
$84.7K Volume 01/01
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 315%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$82.7K Volume 01/01
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
AustraliaAustralia16%YesNo
USUS15%YesNo
$61.1K Volume 01/01
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?
December 317%YesNo
April 302%YesNo
$54.6K Volume 01/01
EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?
30M+77%YesNo
32M+67%YesNo
$1.5K Volume 01/01
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Iran Markets FAQ

What Iran markets exist on Polymarket?

Nuclear markets (will Iran reach 90% enrichment?), sanctions (will sanction X be lifted by date Y?), diplomacy (will a deal be signed?), and military conflict markets.

What moves Iran market prices?

Probabilities come from live order-book depth. IAEA reports, statements from Tehran or Washington, and major media coverage can move prices within minutes.

Can I trade during regional escalations?

Yes. Polymarket stays live with notably higher volume during tensions. Trading geopolitical markets requires tight risk management.

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