Middle East · Politics

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

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$158.4K Volume

31/12/2026 00:00

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Analysis & News

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Yes is priced at 5% and No at 95%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Traders currently imply a 5% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Total traded volume on this market is $158.4K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.