This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
Yes is the outsider here at 12%, while No trades at 89%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 12%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (174 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
Total turnover stands at $200. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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