This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Politics
· Regional Spillover
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Yes is the outsider here at 7%, while No trades at 93%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 7% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (161 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Total turnover stands at $197.6K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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