Iran Prediction Markets

Iran prediction markets track critical developments: nuclear enrichment, IAEA reports, nuclear-deal negotiations, sanctions imposed or lifted, and regional events. Prices move in real time reacting to news out of Sinai, Vienna and Tehran.

These markets typically have strong liquidity around news events and longer expirations (months to a year), enabling dynamic trading.

154 active markets
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate78%YesNo
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate22%YesNo
$434K Volume Ends today
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 3139%YesNo
November 3029%YesNo
$689.4K Volume 01/01
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
November 3027%YesNo
October 312%YesNo
$437.2K Volume 01/12
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
December 3147%YesNo
November 3036%YesNo
$3.8K Volume 01/01
USD x Iranian rials End of December?USD x Iranian rials End of December?
2.5 - 3.0M29%YesNo
3.5 - 4.0M23%YesNo
$3.5K Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Jordan by...?Will Iran target Jordan by...?
November 3047%YesNo
October 312%YesNo
$2.7K Volume 01/12
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes No
$676.9K Volume 01/01
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30?
10+37%YesNo
20+19%YesNo
$3.1K Volume 01/12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
28%
chance
Yes No
$134K Volume 01/01
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
October 596%YesNo
October 495%YesNo
$2.4K Volume Ends today
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202689%YesNo
December4%YesNo
$609.4K Volume 01/02
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3112%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$7.6M Volume 01/01
Khamenei # posts October 30 - November 6, 2026?Khamenei # posts October 30 - November 6, 2026?
<583%YesNo
5-97%YesNo
$11.4K Volume 4 days left
Will Iran target Oman by...?Will Iran target Oman by...?
December 3112%YesNo
November 3010%YesNo
$1.7K Volume 01/01
Will Iran target Syria by...?Will Iran target Syria by...?
December 3126%YesNo
October 312%YesNo
$1.5K Volume 01/01
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3112%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$513.5K Volume 01/01
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
19%
chance
Yes No
$134K Volume 01/07
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
472%YesNo
513%YesNo
$1K Volume 01/01
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
November 3040%YesNo
October 317%YesNo
$25.9K Volume 01/12
Israel military action against Syria by...?Israel military action against Syria by...?
December 3125%YesNo
November 3019%YesNo
$859 Volume 01/01
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
November 3047%YesNo
October 3110%YesNo
$783 Volume 01/12
EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?
30M+92%YesNo
31M+87%YesNo
$1.5K Volume 01/12
EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?
30M+96%YesNo
32M+95%YesNo
$1.5K Volume Ends today
Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?
December 3122%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$84.1K Volume 01/01
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?
10+47%YesNo
20+4%YesNo
$3.1K Volume Ends today
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
November 306%YesNo
August 311%YesNo
$327.2K Volume 01/12
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?
November 3020%YesNo
August 315%YesNo
$633 Volume 01/12
Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?
November 3011%YesNo
October 313%YesNo
$147.7K Volume 01/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
9%
chance
Yes No
$609 Volume 01/01
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
37%
chance
Yes No
$41.6K Volume 31/12
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?
190-20945%YesNo
170-18928%YesNo
$468 Volume 6 days left
Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
Hormuz Agreement; R Senate2%
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate23%
$93.2K Volume Ends today
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
October 2994%YesNo
October 3094%YesNo
$427 Volume Ends today
Will Iran target Bahrain by...?Will Iran target Bahrain by...?
November 3064%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$340 Volume 01/12
Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?
November 3052%YesNo
November 1548%YesNo
$15.9K Volume 01/12
Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?
November 3047%YesNo
October 3112%YesNo
$22.5K Volume 01/12
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 3110%YesNo
November 308%YesNo
$638K Volume 01/01
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26?How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26?
20-2454%YesNo
25-2936%YesNo
$304 Volume Ends today
Houthi military action against Mecca by...?Houthi military action against Mecca by...?
December 313%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$9.6K Volume 31/12
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 318%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$60K Volume 01/01
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?
December 3114%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
$63K Volume 01/01
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?
0-595%YesNo
5-103%YesNo
$297 Volume Ends today
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
December 3116%YesNo
August 319%YesNo
$185 Volume 31/12
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?
June 301%
December 315%
$310.6K Volume 01/01
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
25-2963%YesNo
30-3442%YesNo
$181 Volume Ends today
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
March 3113%YesNo
December 317%YesNo
$1.4M Volume 01/04
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 311%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
$215K Volume 01/01
Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?
November 1516%
November 3034%
$153 Volume 01/12
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Iran Markets FAQ

What Iran markets exist on Polymarket?

Nuclear markets (will Iran reach 90% enrichment?), sanctions (will sanction X be lifted by date Y?), diplomacy (will a deal be signed?), and military conflict markets.

What moves Iran market prices?

Probabilities come from live order-book depth. IAEA reports, statements from Tehran or Washington, and major media coverage can move prices within minutes.

Can I trade during regional escalations?

Yes. Polymarket stays live with notably higher volume during tensions. Trading geopolitical markets requires tight risk management.

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