特朗普预测市场

特朗普预测市场是Polymarket中最活跃的市场之一——任期、法律程序、外交政策（乌克兰、中国、中东）、国内政策和总体批准。交易量超过数亿美元。

这些市场对每一个重大声明反应强烈——通过Truth Social、采访或白宫公告。实时新闻报道创造了交易机会。

41 个活跃市场
排序
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
17%
概率
是 否
$980.8万 成交量 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%是否
August 25August 2599%是否
$258.4万 成交量 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%是否
October 3153%是否
$1,931.1万 成交量 01/01
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 202765%是否
December 31, 202652%是否
$10.6万 成交量 01/04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
概率
是 否
$8.8万 成交量 31/12
伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？ 伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？
7%
概率
是 否
$8.4万 成交量 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%是否
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%是否
$621.1万 成交量 01/01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%是否
September 159%是否
$67.1万 成交量 01/10
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
概率
是 否
$4.1万 成交量 31/08
10月美联储决议？10月美联储决议？
No change72%是否
25 bps increase25%是否
$162.5万 成交量 28/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$27.4万 成交量 01/09
伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？ 伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？
14%
概率
是 否
$2.2万 成交量 31/12
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3125%是否
October 3115%是否
$594.4万 成交量 01/01
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3074%是否
瑞士10%是否
$1.9万 成交量 30/09
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3044%是否
August 3113%是否
$91.1万 成交量 01/10
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf42%是否
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%是否
$1.8万 成交量 31/12
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3151%是否
ChinaChina46%是否
$1.6万 成交量 31/12
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%是否
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%是否
$14.9万 成交量 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
概率
是 否
$4.1万 成交量 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%是否
CATLCATL19%是否
$18.7万 成交量 30/06
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2495%是否
August 2692%是否
$9,956 成交量 01/09
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%是否
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin47%是否
$1.2万 成交量 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+87%是否
180-19913%是否
$1.1万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
概率
是 否
$7,560 成交量 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%是否
Delcy Rodríguez10%是否
$9,578.8万 成交量 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
87%
概率
是 否
$6,176 成交量 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 3197%是否
October 3196%是否
$73.9万 成交量 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%是否
40+2%是否
$5,593 成交量 31/08
12月美联储决议？12月美联储决议？
No change61%是否
25 bps increase29%是否
$162.5万 成交量 09/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%是否
4914%是否
$286.4万 成交量 03/11
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$3,966 成交量 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
概率
是 否
$26万 成交量 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God90%是否
Ballroom85%是否
$5,405 成交量 还剩 7 天
1月美联储决议？1月美联储决议？
No change61%是否
25 bps increase22%是否
$162.5万 成交量 27/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil29%是否
John Brennan18%是否
$38.9万 成交量
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1023%是否
1220%是否
$1万 成交量 03/11
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Productivity77%是否
Good Morning76%是否
$4.6万 成交量 还剩 5 天
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%是否
September 302%是否
$2,914.9万 成交量 01/01
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
77%
概率
是 否
$4,768 成交量 今日截止
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Green New Scam60%是否
Garbage54%是否
$2,668 成交量 31/08
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Illegal / Illegals70%是否
Iran 5+ times63%是否
$2,644 成交量 31/08
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特朗普市场常见问题

现在有哪些特朗普市场在进行？

年度批准、特定政策结果、法律程序、国际谈判结果和高级任命决定。

什么因素影响价格？

特朗普的声明（尤其是Truth Social）、官方白宫公告、法院裁决和国会行动。反应非常迅速。

我如何在特朗普市场中管理风险？

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