Trump · Culture

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

$7.1K Volume
31/08/2026 23:59
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August 1
$31 Volume
90%
August 2
$15 Volume
85%
August 3
$21 Volume
92%
August 4
$15 Volume
90%
August 5
$15 Volume
92%
August 6
$15 Volume
91%
August 7
90%
August 8
$28 Volume
90%
August 9
$27 Volume
92%
August 10
$15 Volume
92%
August 11
$15 Volume
90%
August 12
$15 Volume
91%
August 13
$15 Volume
90%
August 14
$15 Volume
92%
August 15
$15 Volume
92%
August 16
$15 Volume
94%
August 17
$449 Volume
90%
August 18
$859 Volume
88%
August 19
$880 Volume
91%
August 20
$15 Volume
95%
August 21
$15 Volume
92%
August 22
$15 Volume
92%
August 23
$15 Volume
94%
August 24
$15 Volume
94%
August 25
$1.8K Volume
91%
August 26
$1.2K Volume
90%
August 27
$15 Volume
94%
August 28
$270 Volume
91%
August 29
$242 Volume
91%
August 30
$15 Volume
91%
August 31
$194 Volume
89%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.

Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.

A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").

A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will Trump publicly insult someone on?
August 5 dominates the field at 92%; the nearest challenger, August 20, trades at just 91%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Will Trump publicly insult someone on?
Traders price August 5 at a 92% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Will Trump publicly insult someone on market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Aug 2026 (34 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will Trump publicly insult someone on?
$7.1K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will Trump publicly insult someone on on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.

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