The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
No change
$145.8K Volume
72%
25 bps increase
$152.4K Volume
25%
25 bps decrease
$226.1K Volume
5%
50+ bps decrease
$149.8K Volume
1%
50+ bps increase
$72.2K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed Decision in October?
The money is on No change at 72%; 25 bps increase follows at 25%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.
What do traders predict for Fed Decision in October?
Traders lean toward No change, pricing it at 72%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.
When does the Fed Decision in October market resolve?
Mark 28 Oct 2026 (67 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Fed Decision in October?
Traders have put $1.2M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Fed Decision in October on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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