The AI Race, Priced in Real Time
Which lab ships the best model this year? Polymarket prices the AI race continuously - OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta and DeepSeek - across release-date markets, benchmark-leadership markets and company milestones. Prices here are real-money probabilities, not pundit takes: when a lab's odds move 10 points overnight, someone paid for that information. Use them next to our probability guide to read what the market actually believes.
20 active markets
Which company has best AI model end of June?
AnthropicYes 85¢No 15¢
GoogleYes 11¢No 89¢
Largest Company end of June?
NVIDIAYes 94¢No 6¢
AlphabetYes 3¢No 97¢
Best AI model on June 13?
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes 82¢No 18¢
Other
Yes 18¢No 82¢
GPT-5.6 released by...?
July 31
Yes 97¢No 3¢
June 30
Yes 87¢No 13¢
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
AnthropicYes 91¢No 9¢
GoogleYes 6¢No 94¢
OpenAI IPO by...?
December 31, 2026
Yes 48¢No 52¢
September 30, 2026
Yes 11¢No 89¢
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026
Yes 90¢No 10¢
October 31, 2026
Yes 69¢No 31¢
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
OpenAIYes 4¢No 96¢
xAIYes 1¢No 99¢
When will GPT-5.6 be released?
June 22–June 28
Yes 57¢No 43¢
June 15–June 21
Yes 22¢No 78¢
Which company has second best AI model end of June?
AnthropicYes 88¢No 12¢
GoogleYes 7¢No 93¢
Which company has best AI model end of July?
AnthropicYes 81¢No 19¢
GoogleYes 9¢No 91¢
Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
45%+Yes 61¢No 39¢
50%+Yes 37¢No 63¢
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by December 31, 2026
Yes 55¢No 45¢
750B–1T
Yes 13¢No 87¢
New Gemini reasoning flagship released by...?
June 30
Yes 91¢No 9¢
June 19
Yes 18¢No 82¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$900B
Yes 89¢No 11¢
↑$1.0T
Yes 80¢No 20¢
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO by June 30, 2026
Yes 99¢No 1¢
600B+
Yes 1¢No 99¢
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceXYes 79¢No 21¢
AnthropicYes 16¢No 84¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
↑$1.1T
Yes 94¢No 6¢
↑$1.25T
Yes 89¢No 11¢
AI race markets - FAQ
What does a 60% price on an AI market mean?
The market collectively estimates a 60% probability that the outcome happens. Shares pay $1 if it resolves yes, $0 if not - so 60¢ is the crowd's live probability, backed by real money.
Which AI markets have the most volume?
Best-model-by-year-end markets (judged by benchmark leaderboards), major release-date markets, and company milestones like revenue or valuation thresholds typically lead AI-category volume.
How do these markets resolve?
Each market specifies its resolution source up front - usually a named benchmark leaderboard, an official company announcement, or a credible-reporting standard. Read the rules tab before trading: the resolution criteria are the contract.
