The AI Race, Priced in Real Time
Which lab ships the best model this year? Polymarket prices the AI race continuously - OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta and DeepSeek - across release-date markets, benchmark-leadership markets and company milestones. Prices here are real-money probabilities, not pundit takes: when a lab's probability moves 10 points overnight, someone paid for that information. Use them next to our probability guide to read what the market actually believes.
Anthropic89%YesNo
Google7%YesNo
Anthropic99%YesNo
Alibaba1%YesNo
1470+86%YesNo
1480+72%YesNo
December 31, 202671%YesNo
October 31, 202642%YesNo
December 31, 202689%YesNo
September 30, 202674%YesNo
claude-opus-4-6-thinking84%YesNo
Other17%YesNo
9-1183%YesNo
12+16%YesNo
156046%YesNo
158036%YesNo
1480+87%YesNo
1490+66%YesNo
Anthropic99%YesNo
xAI1%YesNoclaude-opus-4-6-thinking78%YesNo
Other23%YesNo
SpaceX86%YesNo
Anthropic14%YesNoAnthropic88%YesNoGoogle6%YesNoAugust 3182%YesNo
August 723%YesNo
55%+88%YesNo
60%+45%YesNo
↑$1.25T88%YesNo
↑$1.5T66%YesNo
AI race markets - FAQ
What does a 60% price on an AI market mean?
The market collectively estimates a 60% probability that the outcome happens. Shares pay $1 if it resolves yes, $0 if not - so 60¢ is the crowd's live probability, backed by real money.
Which AI markets have the most volume?
Best-model-by-year-end markets (judged by benchmark leaderboards), major release-date markets, and company milestones like revenue or valuation thresholds typically lead AI-category volume.
How do these markets resolve?
Each market specifies its resolution source up front - usually a named benchmark leaderboard, an official company announcement, or a credible-reporting standard. Read the rules tab before trading: the resolution criteria are the contract.
