This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
SpaceX
$533.5K Volume
86%
Anthropic
$660K Volume
15%
xAI
50%
OpenAI
$444.3K Volume
1%
ByteDance
$164K Volume
1%
Stripe
$90.2K Volume
1%
Databricks
$577K Volume
1%
SHEIN
$560.9K Volume
1%
Waymo
$309.1K Volume
1%
Revolut
$627.4K Volume
1%
Discord
$169.7K Volume
1%
Perplexity AI
$102.6K Volume
1%
Kraken
$649.9K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX dominates the field at 86%; the nearest challenger, xAI, trades at just 26%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Traders price SpaceX at a 86% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Largest IPO by market cap in 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
$4.9M in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Largest IPO by market cap in 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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