This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Anthropic
$868K Volume
99%
DeepSeek
$543.7K Volume
1%
Google
$664.6K Volume
1%
OpenAI
$912.9K Volume
1%
Alibaba
$459.7K Volume
1%
Z.ai
$344.3K Volume
1%
xAI
$818.8K Volume
1%
Moonshot
$652.6K Volume
1%
Mistral
$205.5K Volume
1%
Meituan
$276.6K Volume
1%
Microsoft
$367.1K Volume
1%
Meta
$668.3K Volume
1%
Amazon
$196.1K Volume
1%
Baidu
$290K Volume
1%
ByteDance
$295K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Which company has best AI model end of July?
Anthropic dominates the field at 99%; the nearest challenger, Google, trades at just 1%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Which company has best AI model end of July?
Traders price Anthropic at a 99% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Which company has best AI model end of July market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Jul 2026 (7 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Which company has best AI model end of July?
Traders have put $165.5K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Which company has best AI model end of July on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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