This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Tech
· AI
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Anthropic
$3.5K Volume
87%
Google
$2.5K Volume
5%
OpenAI
$2.4K Volume
3%
xAI
$2.5K Volume
1%
Meta
$2.4K Volume
1%
DeepSeek
$2.4K Volume
1%
Meituan
$3.8K Volume
1%
Alibaba
$2.4K Volume
1%
Amazon
$3.8K Volume
1%
Baidu
$3.6K Volume
1%
Z.ai
$2.9K Volume
1%
Moonshot
$2.7K Volume
1%
Mistral
$3.2K Volume
1%
Microsoft
$2.9K Volume
1%
ByteDance
$3.2K Volume
1%
Company A
50%
Company B
50%
Company C
50%
Company D
50%
Company E
50%
Company F
50%
Company G
50%
Company H
50%
Company I
50%
Company K
50%
Other
50%
About This Market
Similar Markets

Claude Mythos released by…?
Yes 98¢No 2¢
Yes 98¢No 2¢

Which company has best AI model end of June?
Yes 90¢No 10¢
Yes 8¢No 92¢

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
>$1T
Yes 99¢No 1¢
>$1.2T
Yes 99¢No 1¢

Claude 5 released by…?
September 30, 2026
Yes 99¢No 1¢
June 30, 2026
Yes 97¢No 3¢

Largest Company end of June?
Yes 94¢No 6¢
Yes 4¢No 96¢

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
2.0T-2.5T
Yes 50¢No 50¢
1.5T-2.0T
Yes 31¢No 69¢

Claude Mythos released on…?
On or prior to June 9
Yes 87¢No 13¢
June 10
Yes 9¢No 91¢

GPT-5.6 released by...?
July 31
Yes 96¢No 4¢
June 30
Yes 89¢No 11¢