Polymarket Canada predictions: rates, by-elections and tariffs

Federal and provincial politics

Four federal by-elections each have a market, with trading set to close around 7 December 2026: Yorkton-Melville, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton, Brantford-Brant South and Scarborough North, plus a separate Abbotsford-Mission race. In the provinces, traders follow the Ontario Liberal leadership vote, the B.C. Conservative leadership race, and Alberta, from the independence question to Danielle Smith out as Premier of Alberta by...? Pierre Poilievre and Justin Trudeau both still turn up in the markets.

Trade, the Bank of Canada and the loonie

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...? has traded over $300,000. On 3 November 2026 the 31 December date was at 52%. Rate watchers can trade the Bank of Canada decisions on 9 December 2026, January and March 2027, and Canada Annual Inflation 2026 splits the year's CPI into ranges. A long-shot market asks whether Canada cuts off or throttles electricity exports to the US.

What moves the prices and how to use this page

Statistics Canada CPI and jobs releases, Tiff Macklem's rate statements, news from trade talks in Washington, riding polls and leadership endorsements all move these markets. By-election prices tend to swing late, once riding-level polls and nomination fights are known.

Every price on this page is Polymarket's live order-book price, so 70 cents means the market puts the outcome at roughly 70%. You can follow these markets free and practise trading them with virtual money on polymarkets.co.il.