Polymarket Turkey predictions: Erdoğan, elections and security

Domestic politics: Erdoğan, an early vote and the constitution

The main domestic market is Erdoğan out by...?, with dates at the end of 2026 and the end of 2027. Others ask whether Turkey schedules early presidential elections in 2026, whether a constitutional referendum is announced, and whether the government moves on a new constitution, a route that could let Recep Tayyip Erdoğan run again. Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026? follows the jailed Istanbul mayor. The next presidential election is otherwise scheduled for 2028.

Defence and the region: Israel, Greece, F-35 and CAATSA

Security markets carry the heaviest volume. Greece x Turkey military engagement by...? has traded over $1.2 million and Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? more than $500,000. On the defence side, traders price whether the US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey and whether Turkey rejoins the F-35 programme. There are also markets on the Mecca Agreement and on Turkish military action in Yemen.

What moves the prices and how to use this page

Court decisions on opposition figures, statements from Ankara and Washington on defence deals, incidents in the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean, and talks on constitutional change all shift these prices.

Every price on this page is Polymarket's live order-book price, so 70 cents means the market puts the outcome at roughly 70%. You can follow these markets free and practise trading them with virtual money on polymarkets.co.il.