Polymarket India predictions: Modi, elections and the economy

Politics: Modi, state elections and the Election Commission

Two markets ask whether Narendra Modi leaves office, by the end of 2026 and by 30 June 2027; together they have traded more than $500,000. The early 2027 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab each have a winner market, with the BJP favoured in Uttar Pradesh, and the Kolkata municipal election has one too. Other markets ask whether Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar is removed and whether Rahul Gandhi is arrested.

Economy and security: inflation, Reliance and China

India Annual Inflation 2026 splits the full-year figure into ranges. Largest Indian Company at end of 2026? pits Reliance Industries against Jio Platforms and Infosys; on 3 November 2026 Reliance was at 88%. On the security side, China x India military clash by...? has traded over $340,000.

What moves the prices and how to use this page

Opinion polls in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, alliance deals, RBI policy and food prices, market caps on the NSE and incidents on the Line of Actual Control move these markets. State election prices usually swing most once alliances and seat-sharing deals are announced.

Every price on this page is Polymarket's live order-book price, so 70 cents means the market puts the outcome at roughly 70%. You can follow these markets free and practise trading them with virtual money on polymarkets.co.il.