Polymarket Poland predictions: Tusk, Nawrocki and NATO

Polish politics: Tusk, Nawrocki and the courts

Poland's political markets centre on the uneasy cohabitation between Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Karol Nawrocki. Tusk out by December 31? and Nawrocki out by December 31? price an early exit for either, while Poland snap election called by December 31? asks whether the parliamentary vote due in autumn 2027 comes early. Two markets follow the fight over the Constitutional Tribunal: whether Bogdan Święczkowski is reinstated as its president, and whether he is charged by the end of 2026.

Security: NATO, Russian drones and the eastern flank

Poland sits on NATO's front line, and the biggest market linked to it is Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?, with more than $5.5 million traded. On 3 November 2026 the end-of-2026 date stood at 3.3%. Two further markets ask whether NATO shoots down another Russian drone, by a set date or before Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks. More on the war is in our Ukraine war hub.

What moves the prices and how to use this page

Vetoes from the president, votes of confidence in the Sejm, rulings on the judiciary, airspace violations and NATO statements move these markets.

Every price on this page is Polymarket's live order-book price, so 70 cents means the market puts the outcome at roughly 70%. You can follow these markets free and practise trading them with virtual money on polymarkets.co.il.