Polymarket Japan predictions: Takaichi, the BOJ and the yen

Politics and security: Takaichi, China and Xi

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is at the centre of Japan's political markets. Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? and Japanese parliament dissolved in 2026? price an early exit or snap election, while Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...? tracks diplomacy with Beijing. The highest-volume Japan market, China x Japan military clash before 2027?, has traded more than $1.4 million.

Bank of Japan, bonds, Nikkei 225 and the yen

Macro markets cover each Bank of Japan meeting (18 December 2026, then January and March 2027), the 10-year JGB yield at the end of 2026, the Nikkei 225 closing range on 31 December, core and core-core CPI, quarterly GDP and recession risk. Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026? lists yen levels on both sides, and another market asks whether the US announces a fresh yen intervention. On 3 November 2026 traders put a December BOJ hike of 25 bps at 84.5%.

What moves the prices and how to use this page

BOJ guidance, wage data, CPI releases, US Treasury yields and comments from the Ministry of Finance on the yen drive the macro markets. Diplomatic contacts and military incidents in the East China Sea move the security markets. There are also earthquake markets that settle on USGS data.

Every price on this page is Polymarket's live order-book price, so 70 cents means the market puts the outcome at roughly 70%. You can follow these markets free and practise trading them with virtual money on polymarkets.co.il.