Polymarket Mexico predictions: Banxico, 2027 elections and cartels

The 2027 state elections

Mexico has the most markets of any Latin American hub, most of them for the June 2027 midterm elections. Governor races include Guerrero, Sinaloa, Baja California and Campeche, where Morena candidates such as Beatriz Mojica Morga in Guerrero and Imelda Castro Castro in Sinaloa lead early trading. There are also state congress markets for the State of Mexico, Baja California, Durango, Sinaloa, Yucatán, Michoacán, Tamaulipas and Nayarit. On 3 November 2026 Morena was at 95.5% to win the State of Mexico congress.

Banxico, cartels and earthquakes

Each Bank of Mexico meeting gets its own market, with outcomes such as no change or a 25 bps cut; the December 2026 decision is the next one after this week's. Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026? lists names including Iván Mordisco and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, and another market asks whether Sinaloa governor Rubén Rocha is arrested. Global earthquake markets often include Mexico.

What moves the prices and how to use this page

Candidate selections by Morena and the opposition, state polls, inflation data and Banxico statements, US pressure on the cartels and security operations all move these markets.

Every price on this page is Polymarket's live order-book price, so 70 cents means the market puts the outcome at roughly 70%. You can follow these markets free and practise trading them with virtual money on polymarkets.co.il.