Polymarket Germany predictions: Merz, coalitions and the states

Federal politics: Merz, the coalition and the next President

The largest Germany market by far is Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?, with more than $3 million traded across dates up to the end of 2027. On 3 November 2026 the December 2027 date traded at 38.5%. Related markets ask who the next Chancellor will be before 2028, whether the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition breaks before 2027, and who becomes the next Federal President, with Ilse Aigner the early favourite.

The states: Sachsen-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

After the September 2026 state elections, traders are pricing who governs. Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt? has AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund in front, and a separate market asks whether a snap election is called there. Next Governing Mayor of Berlin? and the coalition markets for Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern show which parties are expected at the table. The key national question is Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

What moves the prices and how to use this page

Coalition talks, votes in the Landtag, federal budget fights and polls for the Union, SPD, AfD, Greens and Linke move these markets. You will also find Germany in European markets on diesel stocks and the Rhine water level.

Every price on this page is Polymarket's live order-book price, so 70 cents means the market puts the outcome at roughly 70%. You can follow these markets free and practise trading them with virtual money on polymarkets.co.il.