This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
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Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Alberta join the US?
Yes is priced at 1% and No at 99%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will Alberta join the US?
Traders currently imply a 1% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will Alberta join the US market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (48 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will Alberta join the US?
Total traded volume on this market is $2.2M, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will Alberta join the US on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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