This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
2.6-2.8%
$47 Volume
79%
2.4-2.6%
$52 Volume
76%
2.8-3.0%
$72 Volume
68%
2.2-2.4%
$47 Volume
37%
<2.0%
$103 Volume
8%
2.0-2.2%
$47 Volume
38%
3.0%+
$100 Volume
66%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026?
The front-runner right now is 2.6-2.8% at 43%, ahead of 2.4-2.6% at 41%. These implied odds update with every trade on Polymarket's order book.
What do traders predict for Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026?
The market gives 2.6-2.8% a 43% implied chance. These probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as news breaks, not guarantees.
When does the Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026 market resolve?
It is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (183 days left), settling under Polymarket's published rules once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026?
Total traded volume on this market is $468 - a gauge of how much real money traders have put behind the outcome.
How can I trade Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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