This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
August 31
$3K Volume
2%
December 31
$1.3M Volume
3%
Resolved 2
April 30
$4.2M Volume
No
June 30
$765.9K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will US withdraw from NATO by?
The field is wide open: December 31 tops it at just 3%, with August 31 close behind at 1%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Will US withdraw from NATO by?
Right now the market's best guess is December 31 at 3% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will US withdraw from NATO by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will US withdraw from NATO by?
Total turnover stands at $6.3M. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will US withdraw from NATO by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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