Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market on whether the United States will withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2026, currently shows a 12.5% probability, reflecting a cautious outlook among traders. With a trading volume of $4.7 million, this market highlights concerns about geopolitical stability and the future of international alliances. Monitoring this market is crucial, as a U.S. withdrawal could significantly impact global security dynamics and NATO's collective defense strategy.