Trump · Tariffs

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

View on Polymarket

$1.9K Volume

31/12/2026 23:59

View on Polymarket

View on Official Site Trade with real money on Polymarket →

Past

Jun 30 Mar 31 Dec 31, 2025

Dec 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

Yes is priced at 12% and No at 89%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

Traders currently imply a 12% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

Total traded volume on this market is $1.9K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.