This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 12%, with No at 89%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 12%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (159 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
$5.5K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
Similar Markets
July 314%
August 3112%
Linke33%YesNo
CDU27%YesNo
Thorsten Frei98%YesNo
Alexander Hoffmann1%YesNo
AfD86%YesNo
SPD15%YesNo
Katharina Pötter77%YesNo
Volker Bajus14%YesNo
281%YesNo
312%YesNo
0.4-0.6%55%YesNo
0.7-0.9%28%YesNo
Linke32%YesNoAfD28%YesNo
