Finance Prediction Markets: IPOs, Fed Rates and Market Caps

Latest developments (November 2, 2026)

Anthropic: still no price range. As of November 2, 2026, 01:58 UTC, SEC EDGAR listed the public S-1 of October 26 as Anthropic's latest filing, with no amendment (Form S-1/A), so the share count, price range and pricing date are still open. Under SEC staff policy, a company whose draft was reviewed confidentially must file its registration statement publicly at least 15 days before any roadshow; counted from October 26, that means no roadshow before about November 10. Bloomberg reported on October 1 that marketing could start the week of November 9; Anthropic has not confirmed a date. After the markdown of October 30 and 31, traders moved the listing odds back up on November 1, again with no new filing on EDGAR. At 01:58 UTC on November 2, the Anthropic IPO date market priced a listing by November 20 at 63%, by November 30 at 83% and by December 31 at 92.5%, against 59.5%, 80% and 85.9% on November 1 and 94.5% for December 31 on October 30. Among the single-day deadlines, November 18 traded at 24% and November 19 at 45.5%. The size markets did not follow: $1.8T or greater on IPO day fell to 56.5% from 62%. In the largest IPO of 2026 market, SpaceX at 57% widened its lead over Anthropic at 43.2%, from 54% against 43.7% on November 1.

Due this week: midterms and jobs. The US midterm elections are on Tuesday, November 3, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October jobs report on Friday, November 6, at 8:30 am ET. Neither result is out. As of November 2, 2026, 01:58 UTC, the balance of power market priced Democrats winning both the Senate and the House at 70.5%, a Republican Senate with a Democratic House at 23.5% and a Republican sweep at 5.5%. On the Fed, the latest inflation reading is the September PCE price index, released on October 29: up 3.6% from a year earlier, with core PCE up 3.1%, both in line with forecasts (Fox Business, IndexBox). The December decision market priced a 25 bps hike at 69.5% and no change at 27.5%, unchanged from November 1, and the January market priced no change at 69.5%, against 72% on November 1, with a 25 bps hike at 24.5%.

Anthropic filed its public S-1 on October 26. Anthropic, PBC filed a Form S-1 registration statement with the SEC on Monday, October 26, 2026, according to the SEC EDGAR filing index and the company's own announcement. It plans to list Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ANT. The number of shares and the price range have not been set, and the registration is not yet effective, so no shares can be sold. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are named as the contacts for the preliminary prospectus. According to Yahoo Finance, the filing shows revenue of about $16.3 billion for the first half of 2026, against $4.6 billion for all of 2025, and a net loss of $80.7 billion, mostly from accounting charges. No listing date has been announced.

OpenAI. OpenAI said on June 8, 2026 that it had filed confidentially for an IPO and had not decided on timing (Bloomberg, ABC News). It has not filed publicly: an EDGAR company search for an S-1 filer named OpenAI returned no match on November 2.

IPO markets: will it list, and how big

Two kinds of market answer IPO questions. A "by date" market, such as "Anthropic IPO by ...?", is a ladder of separate Yes/No questions, one per deadline: are the company's shares listed on a public exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on that date? A later date covers every earlier one, so its price should never be lower. A size market asks how big the debut is, usually the market capitalization at the closing price of the first trading day (shares outstanding times that close), split into fixed brackets.

Anthropic. On June 1, 2026 Anthropic announced that it had confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC. EDGAR lists five amendments to that draft between July 13 and October 9, then the public S-1 on October 26, and no amendment to the S-1 as of November 2. On October 1, Yahoo Finance relayed a Bloomberg report that Anthropic aimed to go public as soon as mid-November, with marketing that could start the week of November 9; the company has not confirmed a date. A public S-1 does not resolve the date market by itself: the shares must be listed and open for trading. In which month will Anthropic IPO? asks the same question month by month: as of November 2, 2026 (01:58 UTC) it priced November 2026 at 81.3% and December at 10.5%, against 77.9% and 9.6% on November 1. That market resolves on the month of the first day of regular trading, from the primary exchange; filings and announcements do not count.

Largest IPO of 2026. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share on June 11, 2026 and closed its first Nasdaq session (ticker SPCX) at $160.95 on June 12, a market value of about $2.1 trillion and the largest IPO on record. This market resolves to the 2026 IPO with the highest first-day closing market cap in US dollars, taken from the primary exchange. So the open question is whether a later listing, in practice Anthropic, lists before December 31 and closes its first day above SpaceX. As of November 2, 2026 (01:58 UTC), SpaceX traded at 57% and Anthropic at 43.2%, against 54% and 43.7% on November 1.

Which companies go public before 2027. One Yes/No market per company: Anthropic, OpenAI, Stripe, Databricks, Revolut, Discord, Canva, Ramp, Perplexity and about twenty more. SpaceX, Cerebras, Wealthfront and SHEIN have already resolved Yes. xAI resolved No: SpaceX acquired it in February 2026, and under the rules a merger or acquisition before an IPO counts as No. As of November 2, 2026 (01:58 UTC), Anthropic's line traded at 92.5%, up from 87.5% on November 1, while OpenAI was at 3.4%, Stripe at 4.1% and Databricks at 2.8%.

IPO-day market cap: Anthropic and OpenAI

Each bracket is its own question, worded like "Will Anthropic's market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?" That question is one line of Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets), a set of linked Yes/No markets: under $0.6T, $0.6T to $0.9T, $0.9T to $1.2T, $1.2T to $1.5T, $1.5T to $1.8T, $1.8T or greater, and no IPO by December 31, 2027. As of November 2, 2026 (01:58 UTC), $1.8T or greater traded at 56.5%, against 62% on November 1, with $1.5T to $1.8T at 31.2% in a wide order book, $1.2T to $1.5T at 7.9% and no IPO by the end of 2027 at 2.4%.

How these markets resolve. The figure is the market capitalization at the official closing price on the first trading day: shares outstanding times that close, taken from the primary exchange's official listing page, or another reliable source if the page does not show it. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket. If the first session is interrupted, for example by a circuit breaker or a half day, the close of the shortened session counts; if no official close is published, the next trading day with one is treated as the first day. The IPO price, the opening price and intraday highs play no part. With no IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the "No IPO" bracket. Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap uses the same rules with brackets from under $1.25T to $3.0T and above; on November 2 (01:58 UTC) its $1.75T to $2.0T bracket led at 30.5%, ahead of $2.0T to $2.25T at 20.1% and $1.5T to $1.75T at 19.3%.

OpenAI. OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap works the same way with a December 31, 2027 cut-off; its top bracket asks "Will OpenAI's market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?" As of November 2, 2026 (01:58 UTC), $1.5T or greater traded at 37% and no IPO by December 31, 2027 at 24.5%, against 24.9% on November 1. A second OpenAI market with the same brackets has a December 31, 2026 cut-off, and its no-IPO line traded at 96%. OpenAI IPO valuation measures something else: the final IPO price times fully diluted shares from the final prospectus. With no IPO by December 31, 2027 it resolves to the lowest bracket (under $1T), which is why that bracket traded at 23.1%. OpenAI said in June 2026 that it had filed confidentially, and CEO Sam Altman told Fortune in September 2026 that OpenAI would not go public in 2026.

OpenAI IPO by ...? A separate date ladder runs into 2027. Each date resolves Yes if OpenAI completes an IPO by then, based on a consensus of credible reporting, and No if a company that is already public acquires it first. As of November 2, 2026 (01:58 UTC), by December 31, 2026 was at 3%, by March 31, 2027 at 19.5% and by June 30, 2027 at 45.5%.

Fed rate markets: one market per FOMC meeting

The October 28 decision. The Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, by a 10 to 2 vote, according to its statement. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point hike. According to Fortune, it was Cook's first dissent since she joined the Board in 2022, and the first time since 1992 that a governor and a regional bank president dissented on the same side. The statement said economic activity "is expanding at a strong pace" and inflation "remains elevated", and that "the accumulation of more information" will help the Committee decide the right policy stance. At his press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh said "politics played no role in the decision", six days before the US midterm elections, and that the Fed's "monetary medicine" was starting to work some, with no firm conclusions yet (Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, Fortune). He also said one 2027 meeting will be devoted to policy strategy, with no rate vote and no statement (Yahoo Finance, Fox Business).

Polymarket's October decision market resolved to "No change" at about 20:01 UTC on October 28; at 02:21 UTC that day it had priced no change at 96%. The next decision comes on December 9, after a December 8 to 9 meeting that includes new economic projections.

Each "Fed Decision in [month]" market maps to one scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. It resolves on the change to the upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the statement after that meeting, in five brackets: 50+ bps cut, 25 bps cut, no change, 25 bps hike, 50+ bps hike. A move of an odd size rounds up to the nearest 25 bps. On September 16, 2026 the FOMC raised the range by 25 bps to 3.75% to 4.00%, and on October 28 it held it there, so the October market resolved to "No change". The Federal Reserve calendar, updated October 28, lists the next meetings for December 8 to 9, 2026 and January 26 to 27, 2027, followed by seven more in 2027. The December market (box at the top of this page) may resolve as soon as the December 9 statement is issued; if no statement came out by the end of the next scheduled meeting, it would resolve to "No change". Each market measures the change against the level just before its own meeting, so after a December hike, "No change" in January would mean holding at the higher level. As of November 2, 2026 (01:58 UTC), the January market priced no change at 69.5% and a 25 bps hike at 24.5%.

Year-long markets count decisions across meetings. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026 counts 25 bps cuts, emergency cuts included, through December 31 (a 50 bps cut counts as two). Another Fed rate hike in 2026 asks about any hike from September 17 through the December meeting, so the September hike itself does not count. As of November 2, 2026 (01:58 UTC), zero cuts in 2026 traded at 97.4% and another hike at 69.5%, in line with the December decision market. Every meeting and the Treasury yield markets are collected on the Fed rate prediction markets page.

Market cap markets: the largest company race

Largest company end of December 2026 resolves to the world's largest company by market cap at the close on December 31, 2026, based on a consensus of credible reporting. NVIDIA and Apple have swapped the top spot several times since June 2024, which is why the price is split mostly between those two. Monthly versions and single-company bracket markets, such as Alphabet's market cap at the end of a month, work the same way on a nearer date.

How to read these prices

A Yes price of 74 cents means traders put the chance at about 74%. If the outcome happens, each Yes share pays $1.00; if not, it pays nothing. Prices are estimates set by trading, not statements from the company or the Fed, and nothing on this page is investment advice.

Each market's rules decide the outcome. IPO date markets name SEC filings (Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations and company releases. "IPOs before 2027" uses a consensus of credible reporting. Size markets use the primary exchange's official listing page. Fed markets use the FOMC statement on the Federal Reserve website. A confidential filing or a reported plan resolves nothing: only the listing, the first-day close or the statement does. Contested outcomes go through the UMA oracle, explained in how markets resolve and UMA disputes.

Options such as the largest IPO or the Fed decision are sets of linked Yes/No markets (see multi-outcome markets). For the macro side read trading economic markets, and for prices as probabilities, probability thinking. Related pages: business, AI race, SpaceX, tech and oil for crude price markets.