Economy Prediction Markets
Eight Fed meetings a year, and a market on each one: a cut of 25 or 50+ bps, no change, or a hike. Around the Fed trade questions on how many cuts come in a year, whether the US enters a recession by the end of 2026, how high or low the 2, 5, 10 and 30-year Treasury yields go, and which company ends the month as the world's largest. Other central banks (Canada, Brazil), China's inflation and GDP, the ISM services index and Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic are on the board too.
Each price is a live probability. Inflation and jobs data, Fed speeches and moves in rate futures shift these markets within minutes of a release.
NVIDIA64%YesNo
Apple35%YesNo
NVIDIA65%YesNoApple33%YesNo
Apple51%YesNoNVIDIA37%YesNo
Microsoft87%YesNo
Alphabet8%YesNo
Apple64%YesNoNVIDIA34%YesNo
Microsoft66%YesNoAlphabet22%YesNo
Below 4.9%94%YesNoBelow 4.8%63%YesNo
Economy Markets FAQ
Which economy markets are on Polymarket?
Fed decisions for each meeting and the number of cuts in a year, US recession odds, Treasury yield ranges, inflation and GDP prints, other central banks, and the largest company by market cap at month end.
How do economy markets resolve?
On the official figure or announcement named in the rules, by the market's end date: the matching outcome pays out, the rest go to zero.
Where is the edge in economy markets?
In reading the data calendar and Fed communication closely. Prices move hardest on CPI, jobs reports and Fed speeches, and range markets can stay mispriced when one bracket is crowded.
What does a Fed decision market resolve on?
On the change to the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement after that meeting, compared with the previous range. A 25 bps cut, no change and a hike are separate outcomes, and only the one that matches the decision pays out.
