Science · Weather

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 6 - July 12?

$177 Volume
12/07/2026 23:59
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≤8
$2.7K Volume
58%
9
$25 Volume
17%
10
$37 Volume
17%
11
$32 Volume
14%
12
$44 Volume
7%
13
$44 Volume
11%
14
$60 Volume
4%
>14
$1.4K Volume
7%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 6 - July 12?
No runaway leader here - ≤8 at 57% versus 9 at 15%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.
What do traders predict for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 6 - July 12?
Traders give ≤8 a 57% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 6 - July 12 market resolve?
The market runs until 12 Jul 2026 (4 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 6 - July 12?
Traders have put $177 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 6 - July 12 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.

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