Science · Weather

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?

$2.6K Volume
26/07/2026 23:59
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≤8
$5.7K Volume
25%
9
$665 Volume
17%
10
$925 Volume
17%
11
$495 Volume
15%
12
$258 Volume
11%
13
$437 Volume
8%
14
$314 Volume
7%
>14
$501 Volume
17%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?
The field is wide open: ≤8 tops it at just 24%, with 10 close behind at 16%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?
No strong consensus yet: ≤8 tops the implied probabilities at just 24%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26 market resolve?
Mark 26 Jul 2026 (5 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?
$2.6K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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