This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
≤6
$7K Volume
1%
7
$1.5K Volume
1%
8
$2.7K Volume
1%
9
$3.8K Volume
1%
10
$6.6K Volume
1%
11
$2.7K Volume
1%
12
$4.8K Volume
2%
13
$3.5K Volume
24%
>13
$14.4K Volume
77%
Resolution Source: earthquake.usgs.gov
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
The money is on >13 at 77%; 13 follows at 24%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.
What do traders predict for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
Traders lean toward >13, pricing it at 77%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.
When does the How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23 market resolve?
Mark 23 Aug 2026 (1 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
$23.9K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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