This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Past
≤6
$2.5K Volume
21%
7
$297 Volume
15%
8
$54 Volume
14%
9
$110 Volume
13%
10
$81 Volume
14%
11
$119 Volume
11%
12
$92 Volume
9%
>12
$738 Volume
19%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19?
Even the leader is cheap - ≤6 trades at 19%, >12 at 18%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19?
Right now the market's best guess is ≤6 at 19% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 19 Jul 2026 (5 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19?
$3.4K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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