This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
≤6
$1.8K Volume
24%
7
$1.8K Volume
15%
8
$106 Volume
12%
9
$128 Volume
12%
10
$95 Volume
12%
11
$77 Volume
10%
12
$146 Volume
4%
13
$114 Volume
9%
>13
$219 Volume
15%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?
Even the leader is cheap - ≤6 trades at 24%, 7 at 15%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?
Right now the market's best guess is ≤6 at 24% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2 market resolve?
Mark 2 Aug 2026 (8 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?
Total turnover stands at $8.3K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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