This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Past
0
$6.7K Volume
1%
1
$1.4K Volume
51%
2
$735 Volume
33%
3
$629 Volume
21%
4
$553 Volume
4%
5
$656 Volume
1%
>5
$2.1K Volume
4%
Resolution Source: earthquake.usgs.gov
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
No runaway leader here - 1 at 51% versus 2 at 31%. Traders are split, so watch the live prices.
What do traders predict for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
Traders give 1 a 51% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16 market resolve?
The market runs until 17 Aug 2026 (6 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
Traders have put $39.8K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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