This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
0
$27 Volume
85%
1
34%
2
$33 Volume
15%
3
62%
4
$32 Volume
44%
5
$23 Volume
44%
>5
$53 Volume
43%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?
The money is on 0 at 67%; 3 follows at 34%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.
What do traders predict for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?
Traders lean toward 0, pricing it at 67%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.
When does the How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 3 Aug 2026 (10 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?
Total turnover stands at $169. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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