This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Past
0
$2K Volume
53%
1
$485 Volume
36%
2
$176 Volume
10%
3
$10 Volume
4%
4
$67 Volume
3%
5
$455 Volume
1%
>5
$373 Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19?
It's a genuine race: 0 edges the field at 53%, barely ahead of 1 at 35%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19?
Traders give 0 a 53% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19 market resolve?
Mark 19 Jul 2026 (5 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19?
$32.8K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 14 - July 19 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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