This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Past
<0.5%
$760 Volume
2%
0.5–1.0%
$485 Volume
8%
1.0–1.5%
$553 Volume
7%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Volume
10%
2.0–2.5%
$1.8K Volume
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3.2K Volume
23%
≥3.0%
$15.9K Volume
32%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
The current front-runner is ≥3.0% at 32%, ahead of 2.0–2.5% at 25%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Traders currently imply a 32% chance for ≥3.0%. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the US GDP growth in Q3 2026 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 29 Oct 2026 (66 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Total traded volume on this market is $277, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade US GDP growth in Q3 2026 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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