This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Past
<1.0%
$1.9K Volume
4%
1.0–1.5%
$1.3K Volume
14%
1.5–2.0%
$1.6K Volume
28%
2.0–2.5%
$1.9K Volume
23%
2.5–3.0%
$1.3K Volume
24%
3.0–3.5%
$1.4K Volume
14%
≥3.5%
$1.7K Volume
3%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
The field is wide open: 1.5–2.0% tops it at just 27%, with 2.5–3.0% close behind at 23%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Right now the market's best guess is 1.5–2.0% at 27% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the US GDP growth in Q2 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 30 Jul 2026 (20 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Total turnover stands at $315. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade US GDP growth in Q2 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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