Next leader out of power before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market focused on the next leader to exit power before 2027 currently reflects a low probability of 0.1%, with a trading volume of $5.2 million. This market will resolve based on the first individual to leave their position, whether through resignation, removal, or scheduled departure. Monitoring this market is crucial as it highlights political stability and potential shifts in leadership dynamics, influencing investor sentiment and strategic decision-making.