This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Starmer - UK PM
$1.1M Volume
98%
Putin - Russia President
$4.2M Volume
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$135.6K Volume
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$8.8M Volume
1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$231.5K Volume
1%
Petro - Colombia President
$964K Volume
1%
None before 2027
$6.6M Volume
1%
Macron - France President
$138.7K Volume
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$143.5K Volume
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$99.1K Volume
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$137.1K Volume
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$3.6M Volume
1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$107.9K Volume
1%
Newsom - California Governor
$126.5K Volume
1%
Milei - Argentina President
$5.2M Volume
1%
Trump - USA President
$3.1M Volume
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$12M Volume
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$6M Volume
1%
Lecornu - France PM
$4.3M Volume
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$160.9K Volume
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$1.1M Volume
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$1.5M Volume
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$211.4K Volume
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$168K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)?
At 98%, Starmer - UK PM has pulled far clear of Putin - Russia President (1%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)?
Traders price Starmer - UK PM at a 98% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)?
Total turnover stands at $60.1M. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
Similar Markets
Mojtaba Khamenei83%YesNo
Reza Pahlavi5%YesNo
August 1524%YesNo
July 3116%YesNo
July 3149%YesNo
July 1714%YesNo
December 3148%YesNo
August 3135%YesNo
August 3122%YesNo
July 3112%YesNo
December 3138%YesNo
September 3019%YesNo
